Will Silver Hit $100 an Ounce?

Spot silver is trading between $93 and $94 per ounce, posting sharp gains over the last three months tied to risk-off flows and Fed easing expectations. A $100 price for an ounce of silver is an implied upside of 6-7%. With no real resistance, the silver price has virtually unfettered access to the $100 mark, barring any unforeseen USD buying that could trigger a near-term correction.

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Silver prices have risen nearly 442% since the August 2022 lows. The sharp uptrend has been boosted by the US Federal Reserve’s sequential rate cuts, physical silver supply tightness, rising industrial demand post-COVID, and risk-off flows amid heightened geopolitical risks.

Silver has not had a losing month since June 2025. But the question is: given the recent steep rise in silver prices, can the asset sustain a price break above $100, or should traders watch for a sharp reversal?

Silver price predictions 2026: Macro Drivers to the $100 Price

The macro drivers supporting a push to the $100 mark include the following:

• Fed rate cut expectations
• Risk-off flows
• Tightness in physical silver supply
• Positioning sensitivity

1. Rate-cut expectations

Fed easing expectations are the strongest tailwinds on the macro level for silver prices. The expectations of further Fed easing for 2026 is expected to weaken the US Dollar over the course of the year, driving flows to precious metals. The bid on gold and silver in Q4 2025 and early 2026 is nearly all due to this factor.

2. Risk-off flows

The year started with military action from the US in Venezuela, setting off risk-off hedging due to heightened geopolitical risks. These risks have heightened as the US now sets its sights on Greenland, which now pits the world’s superpower with its NATO allies. The US responded to the NATO defensive buildup in Greenland with new sanctions. These events have triggered off safe-haven plays, which looks set to support silver prices in the near term.

3. Tightening in physical supply

Also contributing to the current silver rally is tightness in silver supply. Silver is heading into a structural deficit for the 5th straight day, according to the Bank of America. Tighter conditions and market dislocation are adding to the current volatility.

4. Positioning sensitivity

Gold and silver prices tend to move in tandem as a result of gold-linked flows exerting a beta effect on silver. Industry linkage and momentum participation that followed as gold shot through the $4200/ounce mark dragged silver along. Having crossed the $90 mark, $100 an ounce is a price that now beckons as the next psychological target.

Base case scenario: With the silver price already at $94, there is little holding it back from the next psychological barrier, which is $100. Silver price action has already exceeded the $90 target set by most institutional analysts, and as we see later, Citi already has a $100 price target.

Bull case scenario: The bull case scenario which sees silver crossing the $100 mark presents itself if the Fed delivers on rate cuts, ETF inflows remain robust and industrial demand remains high amid supply tightness.

Bear case scenario: Silver prices touch the $100 psychological price level and then revert southwards sharply. Supporting this scenario are upward repricing of Fed rate cut bets, easing of supply tightness later in the year, or rapid liquidation of positions after a position squeeze.

Silver Price Institutional Outlook for 2026

Here are the prevailing institutional targets for the silver price for 2026, based on current assumptions and market conditions.

Citi remains very bullish on the white metal in the near term, and recently raised its silver target to $100 per ounce with a 0-3 months outlook. The bank cites heightened global uncertainty and increased demand as the driving factors behind its silver price outlook.

JP Morgan is a bit more conservative in its silver price outlook, expecting it to trade lower in Q4 2026. Its average price is between $56 and $58 per ounce. HSBC’s silver price forecast is more optimistic, with a $68.25/ounce projection for H1 2026. However, the bank has warned about price volatility.

This leaves Citi as the only institutional entity to have set its sights on a sustained move above and beyond $100/ounce.

Silver price: Technical Outlook

The latest price surge is the extension of the bounce from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the December 2001 – April 2011 upswing. The price is now testing the 92.14 price level, which is the 100% Fibonacci extension of this move.

This price barrier needs to be uncapped to allow the bulls to reach the 119.32 price level, where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension lies. This move will take silver prices to $100 and beyond.

On the flip side, rejection at the current resistance makes for a corrective decline towards 75.33 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), leaving 60.02 as the next major price pivot.