- Gold price is facing a selloff as geopolitical risk premiums get repriced and Asian liquidity thins ahead of Chinese New Year.
Gold price broke below the $4900/ounce mark in overnight trading and has stayed below it in the London and New York sessions. The gold price fell to 4841, a 1-week low. Price has recovered somewhat and now trades at 4887 as of writing, down 3.12% on the day.
Gold Price: The Week’s Pathway So Far
The price action on the XAU/USD pair has been very volatile over the last 7 sessions, prompting many brokers to adjust their leverage settings for the asset to prevent slippage that could lead to negative account balances for clients. Here is a summary of the daily gold price action in the last seven sessions.
- Feb 6: Gold gained nearly 4% on safe-haven demand following geopolitical escalations in the Middle East.
- Feb 9: This was followed by another push to the north, this time by 1.86% to send the XAU/USD to 5086.
- Feb 10: A slight selloff brought prices down to 5078. The selloff was more profit-taking than convincing selling.
- Feb 11: Geopolitical risk premiums and bullish momentum sent gold prices towards the 5119 mark.
- Feb 12: There was a sharp selloff, following the previous day’s sharp spike (a common phenomenon in technical analysis). The gold price fell 3.22% on the day.
- Feb 13: Dip buyers propped up the gold price by about 2.5%, but they were unable to recover the previous day’s high.
- Feb 17: The markets resumed after the US holiday (President’s Day), but sellers are dominating, and the day’s high is even lower than the previous day’s, as follow-through selling strengthens.
Why Has Gold Moved Lower Today?
Gold prices are trading much lower today for several reasons.
a) USD strength
The US Dollar firmed on the day, as markets continue to interpret the previous week’s stellar jobs data as a sign that Fed easing expectations for 2026 may be tapered. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes are also being closely watched for signals on when the Fed will begin the much-anticipated easing. The market is pricing in a Fed rate cut to resume mid-year.
b) Less Safe-Haven Demand
Safe-haven demand heightened the previous week with the US military buildup in the Middle East, pointing towards potential strikes on Iran. The potential for US-Iran talks and the resumption of Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations have cooled this demand, causing the geopolitical risk premium to be repriced against gold.
c) Thinner Asian Liquidity
China is about to commence its Lunar New Year, and for the next two weeks, Chinese markets will be closed for the annual holiday. This will lead to severely muted Asian demand, especially from China, one of the world’s largest gold buyers.
Gold Price Live Chart: Key Price Anchors
- Immediate resistance: $5000 psychological price mark
- Next Resistance: 5131.32 (61.8% Fibonacci extension of 12 May 2025 – 13 October 2025 upswing)
- Upper Resistance: 5594.81 (100% Fibonacci extension and 26 January 2026 high, which is the all-time high).
- Immediate support: 4860-4890 (intraday session low and site of recent downside candle shadows)
- Next support: 4709 (26 January low and 27% Fibonacci extension)
- Steeper support: 3917 (27 October 2025 low)
As of today, 17 February 2026, the gold price is in a post-spike market digestion phase. This is because geopolitical risk premia are being repriced to the downside, and drier liquidity and USD strength are amplifying conditions that favour the current selling action.
Gold Price: Technical Outlook
The consolidating price action within the channel looks more like an evolving bearish flag. A breakdown of the flag border and the 4709 support is required to confirm the downside move, with a measured target at 4270 (31 December 2025 low). This move is also contingent on the bears degrading the extended trendline, which initially served as the lower border of the triangle from which the December 2025 breakout began.
On the flip side, a defence by the bulls that keeps price above 4709 negates the pattern’s bearish expectation. A subsequent break above 5131 makes a case for a retest of the all-time high at 5598.