Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds Firm Above $4,250 as Markets Brace for Key US Data

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to trade confidently near $4,250, extending last week’s breakout and marking its strongest level in six weeks. The metal opened December with solid follow-through from buyers as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week surged to nearly 90 percent. With the US Dollar under pressure and Treasury yields softening, the backdrop remains supportive for XAU/USD heading into a heavy data calendar.

Gold Strengthens as Rate-Cut Bets Surge Into December

According to Fox Business, over $180 million in combined prediction-market bets point to a high probability of a December Fed rate cut, adding further support to gold’s latest surge.

Softer consumer spending, cooling inflation components, and increasingly cautious commentary from Fed officials have pushed rate expectations sharply higher. The US Dollar posted its weakest weekly performance in four months, allowing gold to extend its upward trajectory without significant resistance.

Geopolitical tensions have eased slightly, reducing safe-haven urgency, but the macro environment still leans in favor of precious metals. Silver, for instance, continues to consolidate near $56 after a strong November run, showing similar sensitivity to shifting rate expectations and the broader risk tone.

US Data and US Dollar Outlook: How XAU/USD Will React This Week

All eyes are on the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November. Forecasts point to another contractionary reading in the high 40s, but traders have become extremely sensitive to marginal surprises.

• A weaker print would reinforce the narrative of a slowing US economy, pressuring the dollar and supporting gold.
• A stronger print could revive USD strength temporarily and cap XAU/USD gains before the Fed meeting.

Later in the week, ADP employment data, ISM Services PMI, unemployment claims, and the Core PCE Price Index will fill the recent data gap and shape how aggressively markets position for rate cuts.

For now, traders seem unwilling to chase gold too aggressively, preferring confirmation over speculation.

Gold Price Forecast: Technical Outlook for December 2025

Gold continues to trade above all major moving averages, maintaining a clean bullish structure on higher timeframes. The 21-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs are all aligned to the upside, reinforcing the broader trend. Price also remains comfortably above the 61.8 percent retracement at $4,191, indicating that last month’s pullback has lost momentum.

Gold Price Analysis: Key Levels to Watch in December 2025

• Immediate resistance: $4,275 (78.6 percent retracement)
• Breakout target: $4,307
• First support: $4,171–$4,180 (trendline retest + structural demand zone)
• Major support: $4,040 (50-day SMA)

RSI sits near 66, showing firm upside momentum without signaling an immediate reversal. A decisive daily close above $4,275 would likely open the door toward the recent high, while a drop below $4,180 would signal a short-term pause in bullish momentum.

Gold Short-Term Forecast: Consolidation Before the Fed

Gold is expected to hold within a broad range between $4,180 and $4,257 ahead of the ISM print. Silver may consolidate between $56 and $57.85, with momentum favoring a retest of $59.09 if the US Dollar remains weak. Both metals are likely to stay highly reactive to US macro data this week.

Gold Price Outlook: Final Takeaway for Traders

Gold remains on a firm footing, supported by softening inflation, falling yields, and elevated rate-cut expectations. The technical structure favors further upside as long as XAU/USD holds above the $4,171–$4,180 zone.
My view is that gold still has room to push higher into year-end, but traders should expect volatility in the hours surrounding the ISM and the December Fed meeting.

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