Brent crude oil price is trading at around $63.95 a barrel on Monday and recording slight increases due to the improvement in government shutdown talks in the United States. Optimism was however limited by increasing supply and the continued fear of poor fuel demand.
Although traders celebrated the news that Washington could be able to lift its 40 days shut down soon the energy market is still not convinced. The extended derailment has struck air transport and freight traffic, two of the key demand foundation sources of refined fuels, and analysts are puzzled about the speed of its recovery.
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast: Market Steadies as Oversupply Limits Gains
The U.S. Senate’s move to advance a funding bill was enough to stabilize risk appetite across markets. Yet, crude fundamentals still look heavy. Inventories in the U.S. continue to climb, and a growing volume of oil stored at sea, particularly in Asian waters, highlights just how oversupplied the market remains.
Even as prices inch higher, traders seem more defensive than bullish. From my perspective, this stabilization feels temporary, a pause rather than the start of a sustained rally.
OPEC+ Output and Russia Tensions Add Pressure
OPEC+ is maintaining its plan to slightly increase output in December, while deferring further production decisions into early 2026. The cautious tone shows that producers are watching demand closely, unwilling to risk a price collapse by adding too much supply.
Meanwhile, Russia’s energy sector continues to face disruptions. The Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea has halted exports after recent drone strikes, and Lukoil’s overseas asset sale to Gunvor fell through under U.S. sanctions pressure. Those setbacks provide only limited price support, given the scale of global oversupply.
Brent Crude Oil Chart Analysis
Brent’s daily chart shows a sideways trend, trading between $60.30 support and $66.10 resistance, as seen through the Bollinger Bands. The middle band near $63.24 represents the current equilibrium point. With RSI around neutral, momentum remains weak.
A break below $62 could invite more selling, while a push above $67 would be the first real signal of renewed strength.
Brent Oil Price Outlook: Can the Market Rebound?
At this stage, Brent crude oil feels stuck in a holding pattern. Traders are cautious, not bearish, and that distinction matters. Unless there’s a clear supply cut or stronger demand from the U.S. and China, oil is likely to drift sideways through mid-November.
Personally, I think this phase is more about patience than panic, a reset before the next move. Energy markets have a way of overreacting in both directions, and with so many cross-currents in play, the next breakout could surprise both bulls and bears.
Analysts expect Brent to stay range-bound between $62 and $68 per barrel unless new production cuts or stronger demand data emerge.
Key factors include OPEC+ output decisions, U.S. crude inventory levels, global demand trends, and geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions.
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