Long-Term Analysis For Better Investment Decisions

Gold price (XAU/USD) has had a strong upward momentum since mid-December 2024, and has hit all-time high price of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025 at the spot market. The yellow metal's propulsion this year has mostly been a result of the safe haven demand created by concerns over the impact of a trade tariff war and pitting the United States against China, Mexico, and Canada. As of this writing, it just got fresh impetus after Israel's attack against Iran's top military commanders and leading nuclear scientists. However, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has put a lid on the commodity's upside. Gold price was up by 1.31% percent on the daily chart as of this writing to trade at $3,446 per ounce in the spot market; the second-highest price on record. The geopolitical risk sentiment is the biggest source of propulsion, underpinned by a rising risk of a full-blown military confrontation between Israel and Iran. Iran's withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with the US and US President Donald Trump having warned of a potentially more devastating attacks by Israel on Iran. This article was originally written in December 2024 and is regularly updated to reflect the latest gold market trends and price action Stable dollar fundamentals limit XAU/USD gains The US economy signaled stability in May, with the labour market defying trade tariff fears. Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data showed that 139,000 jobs were created during the month, beating analysts' forecast figure of 130,000, but declining from April's 147,000. In addition, unemployment rate stayed stable at 4.2%, with hourly earnings rising by 3.9% on an annual basis and by 0.4% month-on-month. In the wake of these figures, combined with the imminent signing of a trade pact between the US and China, the dollar has managed to limit gains by gold. However, the dollar has performed weakly against other leading currencies in recent weeks amid concerns over a potential contraction of the US economy. The DXY index, which weighs the greenback against a composite of six other currencies, slid to 97.60 this week, the lowest since March 2022. Shaky US Treasury Yields Strengthen Gold Price Upside US Treasuries are substitutes for gold as far as safe-haven investments go, and weaknessess in US trade policy has seen yields wobble. The yields on benchmark 10-year bonds ranged between 4.40%-4.48% in April, amid heightened volatility fueled by trade tariff fears. This provided support for gold price. However, the rates gained some stability in May, with yields ranging between 4.28% and 4.61%, with concerns over US fiscal deficit and weak performance at the auction market. Also, strong jobs figures have provided strength to the bonds in the first half of June, with a notable improvement in action performance amid rising expectations of Fed easing. As of this writing, yields on the benchmark 10-year bonds were at 4.418%. This will likely put a lid on the XAUUSD trading pair in the near term. Gold News Update: Gold Hits New Highs as Tariff Risks and Dollar Weakness Fuel Flight to Safety Gold just made history. Hitting a record high of $3,500 in April 2025, setting a fresh all-time high and turning heads across global markets. The move wasn’t random, as safe-haven demand roared back into focus. One major driver? The US dollar has started to slip. Since Trump’s second term began, tariff talk has picked up again. His new trade policies are already fanning inflation fears. Investors are hedging early, and gold is back in the spotlight. The Fed, for now, is holding steady. Markets were expecting at least two rate cuts in 2025. But sticky inflation and a politically charged environment are making things complicated. That’s bullish for gold. Meanwhile, China isn’t sitting out. Its central bank has bought more than 200,000 ounces of gold in the past two months alone. That follows an 18-month buying spree that paused briefly last October. Now, they’re back—and buying aggressively. Economic data in the US is mixed. Job numbers are holding up, but manufacturing is shaky. That tug-of-war has traders rotating into hard assets. And gold, once again, is acting like the anchor. With gold prices trading at record levels, all eyes are now on the $3,500 zone. It’s the next line in the sand. And if the dollar continues to falter, gold might just get there faster than expected. XAU/USD and Its Correlation With The DXY Index The dollar strength index tracks the strength of the USD against a basket of major global currencies. This index has recently hit YTD lows of 106.83 and could go lower. In the event the DXY index drops below 100 points, it is very hard to see gold below $2,700. DXY Chart Gold Price Historical Chart In August 2020, gold price rallied to an all-time high of $2,072.85, surpassing the previous record high of $1,924.77 it hit nine years before. With the subsequent decline, the psychologically crucial zone of $2,000 has remained evasive. However, it has remained above $1,600 since rising above it at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in April 2020. Gold price crashed to $1,616 on September 28, 2022. This price was about 21.88% from its highest point in 2022. This crash coincided with a period when the Federal Reserve was hiking interest rates aggressively in a bid to fight soaring inflation. It then started rising after signs emerged that inflation was starting to ease in the US. Gold Update 13/5/2025 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Rebounds as Market Focus Shifts Back to Fed Policy Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, reversing earlier losses as the initial optimism over the U.S.–China trade détente began to lose steam. After sliding briefly below $2,360 during Asian hours, XAU/USD rebounded to $2,387, as traders recalibrated their expectations on inflation, central bank policy, and the broader risk landscape. The move higher comes as investors grow wary of lingering structural tensions despite the White House’s latest tariff pause. The safe-haven metal appears to be reclaiming its role as uncertainty around global growth, rate cuts, and geopolitical risk continues to resurface. Gold Price Drivers Today: Fed Back in Focus, Tariff Relief Not Enough Gold’s intraday bounce can be traced to shifting sentiment: U.S.–China euphoria fades: The temporary optimism from tariff easing has started to unwind, with analysts warning that the underlying trade rift remains unresolved. Rate cut bets stay firm: Despite the rebound in equities, traders continue to price in a possible Fed cut in September, keeping real yields under pressure. Weakening U.S. dollar: The dollar index fell 0.3% by midday trading, adding fuel to gold’s recovery. Safe-haven flows re-emerge: Ongoing tensions in the Taiwan Strait and muted global demand recovery have kept gold attractive as a defensive asset. This backdrop is helping gold stabilise above key technical levels even as short-term volatility persists. Gold Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch This Week Gold’s chart shows signs of strength returning, but the trend remains delicate: Support held at $2,360, marking a near-term demand zone Price bounced to $2,387, now flirting with short-term resistance Next key resistance sits at $2,412 - a decisive break may clear the path to $2,450 If $2,360 fails again, bears could test $2,328 as the next support RSI is recovering at 52.6, suggesting neutral momentum MACD nearing a crossover, signalling potential upside continuation if confirmed Gold Chart Analysis Today, May 13 2025 A daily close above $2,400 could re-establish bullish sentiment heading into the week’s U.S. inflation data. Updated on May 19 2025 Gold Price Rebounds Above $3,230 as Moody’s Downgrade Shakes US Dollar Sentiment Gold (XAU/USD) is back in focus this Monday, bouncing off its recent lows to trade near $3,234, as market nerves flare up following Moody’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit outlook. While gold remains below last month’s peak, today’s rebound reflects renewed interest in risk-off assets. Gold Technical Analysis: Rebound in Motion, Eyes on $3,280 Current Price: $3,234.40 RSI (14): 55.97 — trending up, still neutral MACD: Bullish crossover intact, histogram rising Immediate Support: $3,200, then $3,160 Resistance Levels: $3,280 short-term, then $3,340 Gold’s recent pullback found a floor near $3,160, and momentum indicators are beginning to turn higher. If bulls can maintain control above $3,230, the next leg could target $3,280 — a level that previously acted as a ceiling earlier this month. Final Take: Is Gold’s Correction Over? Gold’s bounce today may mark a shift in tone after a multi-session slide. With credit risks resurfacing in the US and bond yields jumping, institutional demand for safe-haven exposure could rise. If the price holds above $3,200 and macro pressure persists, gold may be gearing up for a push toward $3,300–$3,340, with a longer-term path back toward $3,500 still in sight. I’ll keep posting my updated outlook on Gold and other assets in my free Telegram group, which you’re welcome to join. Gold Price Forecast 2030 A feasible gold price forecast 2030 is founded on US dollar movements due to the existing inverse correlation. In the event of geopolitical tensions, gold may find some support in its status as a safe haven. However, its upward momentum may be limited by a rise in the demand for the greenback. Over the past eight years, gold price has risen by about 60%. However, an assumption that the bull market will continue over the next eight years makes a surge of 50% viable. In that case, the gold price forecast for 2030 will be for the precious metal to hit a high of about $2,700 an ounce. How to invest in gold One of the viable ways to invest in gold is by buying bullion. It may be in coins or bars, certified with purity and weight have. Then, one can purchase or sell the physical gold to a reputable dealer. However, security reasons often lead some investors to embrace the route of futures and options. Best gold stocks to invest in One of the best ways to invest in gold is through stocks. In the past few years, mergers and acquisitions in the sector has led to a significant consolidation in the sector. Today, only a few large companies dominate the industry. Barrick Gold, a company valued at $30 billion, is one of the best gold stocks to invest in. Its stock has risen by 21% in the last year and is up by dropped by about 8.1% year-to-date. The other excellent stock to buy is Wheaton Precious Metals, which is worth over $28 billion. Unlike other gold companies, Wheaton does not do the real mining. Instead, the company has purchased rights for key gold assets. The other best gold stocks to invest in are Newmont Corporation, and Agnico Eagle mine. The chart below shows the performance of some of the biggest gold stocks in the industry. Gold stocks chart Gold Futures Futures are contracts in which one agrees to buy or sell the financial asset at the agreed-upon price before the expiry of the contract. For options, the investor has a chance and not an obligation to buy or sell the underlying instrument for as long as the contract is valid. To invest in gold via futures and options, one needs an account with a reputable financial broker. It is possible to trade in gold for a commission through the brokerage account. Gold ETFs ETFs and mutual funds are yet another viable way to invest in gold. A share of this financial instrument represents a specific amount of gold. One needs a brokerage account to trade in gold ETFs or mutual funds, like in futures and options. In addition to the aforementioned ways of investing in gold, an investor can consider buying stocks of gold mining companies like Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD) or Newmont Corp. (NEM). While the share price is usually correlated to gold price, the firm’s fundamentals are also influential. The chart below shows two of the most popular gold ETFs, the iShares Gold Trust and SPDR Gold Trust. As you can see, these ETF tend to move in sync with gold prices. Gold ETF SPDR Gold Chart Summary As was the case in 2021, gold’s relation with inflation Is mixed. In 2025, the trend will likely continue as inflationary pressures and tariff wars continue to boost the precious metal. In addition, geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war could continue providing safe haven tailwinds. Furthermore, Fed interest rate decisions in Starting will have a substantial impact on gold's upward potential.