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Can the GBP to INR Rally Break Above June Highs?


GBP to INR hits the highest level since June 11 extending gains for the sixth consecutive session. The negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic continues to weigh on Indian Rupee, despite the gradual reopening of the Indian economy. India’s economy was running at around 4.2% in 2019. 

Since the coronavirus outbreak, many agencies have downgraded their projections for the 2020 Indian GDP contraction. International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects in the latest Indian economy review to contract by 4.5% while Fitch expects a 5% contraction. The World Bank estimates that Indian GDP will contract by 3.2%. The Asian Development Bank forecasts that the Indian economy will contract by 4%.  

On the other hand, the sentiment for GBP remains subdued as the deadlock in Brexit negotiations with the EU continues. The previous week negotiations between UK and EU failed to reach an agreement on critical issues. The economic data from the UK shows a gradual rebound to the economy, and that supports the British pound. 

GBP to INR Daily Technical Analysis

GBP to INR adds 0.44% to 95.9815 marking the sixth consecutive session with gains as the pairs bullish momentum accelerated after it breached above the 50-day moving average. GBPINR rebound from the March lows continues with small corrections that stopped at the 200-day moving average. The technical outlook points to further gains as the pair makes consecutive higher highs and higher lows. 

The attention is on higher levels, but first, the pair needs to clear the June highs at 96.80. A settlement above the June highs might open the way for a test of the yearly highs at 97.83. 

Bearish traders are on the sidelines and looking for a break below 94.92 the lowest level from July 23. More bears would join the action if the pair breaks below the 50-day moving average at 94.3450. A credible break below might challenge the 100-day moving average at 93.7250. 

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GBPINR Daily Chart

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