BTCUSD: Will Falling Supply Trigger a Short-term Surge in Bitcoin Prices?

Following the uneventful Bitcoin halving event, latest news reports suggest that Bitcoin prices may soon be on the move once more as hedge funds are snapping up newly minted BTC. A supply cut produced by the halving event means that there isn’t as much new Bitcoin from recent mining as there was a month ago.
The latest data show that more than 18.5million Bitcoins have been mined, leaving about 2.5million yet to be generated. This figure translates to 88% of all possible Bitcoin that can ever be mined already off the table. However, a lot of this is either lost, stolen and sitting in unused wallets. The rest lies in private hands or on the exchanges. So there is a lot less than 88% of Bitcoins in circulation.
A combination of supply cuts and increased demand from institutional players may have raised expectations of a short term surge in the price of the BTCUSD pair. However, only a look at the charts will tell us if such a price surge will occur or not.

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On the flip side, if the resistance at the channel border proves too strong and price rejection breaks down the smaller ascending channel, then Bitcoin prices could have a chance to aim for the lower edge of the ascending channel. However, this move will have to contend with, and overcome the support areas of 8550.12, 8000.90, 7420.72, 6596.16, 6365.15 and 5820.02. Considering the number of support levels that act as roadblocks to this move, a successful drop to the lower border could take months to achieve. More realistically, Bitcoin prices have a better chance at bouncing off any of these support levels, which could allow BTCUSD to retest the previous resistance levels above any of the potential bounce points mentioned.

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