Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction As EU Embargo on Russian Oil Looms

Brent crude oil price predictions appear to be dictated more from the demand side than from the supply side after prices dropped on Tuesday due to lower demand from China. The drop overcame the supply-side concerns that crept up after reports that the EU was considering an embargo on Russian oil imports.

Crude oil price on the Brent benchmark fell 1.63% after the lockdowns in Shanghai, and other commercial nerve centres entered another week. The situation in the world’s largest importer of crude oil is already telling on demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut China’s crude oil demand forecast by 925,000 barrels per day for April. 

Brent crude is trading flat this Wednesday. However, Tuesday’s selling pressure on crude oil is being offset by reports of a possible Russian oil import ban by the EU. In addition, shortages in the supply of heating oil, whose storage levels in America hit 14-year lows recently, are also putting some demand on crude oil. 

Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction

The descending trendline that forms the upper border of the descending triangle continues to limit attempts by the price activity to push further north. The latest attempts flopped at this border, close to the 109.58 resistance. The active daily candle is also facing an obstacle at the 106.11 support. If the bears degrade this support level, additional support comes in at 103.11 (4 April low). Below this point, 97.40 (28 February and 16 March lows) form the barrier to beat for the bears. This support level’s breakdown signals the triangle’s breakdown, with 80.22 (4 November 2021 and 6 January 2022 lows) serving as the completion point of the measured move. To achieve this move, the bears must take out support levels at 91.32 (16 February low) and 86.72 (26 October 2021 highs and 25 February 2022 low).

On the flip side, a break above the 109.58 resistance also takes out the triangle’s upper border, thus invalidating it. This scenario allows the bulls to push towards 114.03 (11 March and 19 April highs). Above this barrier, additional resistance could come in at 120.00 (3 March high at a psychological price level) and at 123.61, site of the 24 March 2022 high.

Brent Crude: Daily Chart