Today, Bitcoin prices (BTCUSD) continue to digest their sharp September decline, and per the large triangle pattern that formed over June to September, bitcoin prices remain at risk of trading to the $6797 level. However, it is encouraging for bulls that the decline pretty much got stuck in its track.
The triangle pattern is formed by drawing an upward sloping trendline via the July 17 and 28 lows, and the August 30 low. A downward sloping trendline goes via the June 26, July 10, August 8, and September 6 highs, and completes the pattern. The pattern target is derived by taking the percentage difference between the two trendlines on July 17 and subtract the same amount from the breakout point of the triangle.
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The pattern will remain in play as long as the bitcoin prices does not trade back into the pattern, but it is more probable that traders that remain short to have reduced their stop-loss orders to the October 11 high at $8852.21. Also, the October 11 high is relatively well tested, and several times BTCUSD has tried to trade higher only to fail in the $8438 to $8852 range, so I suspect that a break to the $8852 level might send the Bitcoin price to the August 30 low of $9344.
However, as long as the price trades below the October 11 high, the trend will remain bearish, and the price will be at risk of trading lower. The price might first reach the September low at $7699, followed by the June low at $7435.57, and the pattern target at $6794.Download our latest quarterly market outlook for our longer-term trade ideas.
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