S&P 500 Recovery Capped: Is a Huge Downside Move to 3020 On the Way?
The S&P 500 index got a break from the relentless selloff of the past three sessions, as data showed the US economy grew by 33.1% in the 3rd quarter, beating estimates of 32.0%. This was also reinforced by improved initial jobless claims data that showed a total of 751K claims versus estimates of 773K and last week’s 791K.
However, today’s 0.64% gains remain capped as risk sentiment remains soured and the US pending home sales also deteriorated to -2.2% (consensus 3.1%; previous 8.8%).
Rising coronavirus cases mean that the state of the local epidemic is closer to the March 2020 situation, and with no stimulus package in sight, sentiment remains sour. The GDP is lagging data and therefore, does not indicate the current state of affairs in various sectors of the economy. The situation means that other data that would be seen down the road may not paint a rosy picture.
Credit Suisse has now emphasized the other side of the previous outlook it provided last week. The bank had previously seen a move to 3588 on the condition that buying demand resumed at the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders pattern.
The breakdown of the neckline following the storming of the S&P 500 by risk-averse traders, has changed the bank’s outlook. Credit Suisse now sees a possible move to the 3130 price level (200-day moving average), if the price continues below the 3209 neckline of the double top formed by the weekly RSI momentum indicator.
This outlook as well as mine, is depicted in more precise terms below.
Technical Outlook for S&P 500 Index
The background to the picture on the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 index formed two progressively lower tops: the record high of 12 September, and the lower top of 12 October. The progressively lower peaks of the RSI momentum correspond to these tops. The lower top marked the completion of the measured move from the reverse head and shoulders pattern (troughs of 9 September – left shoulder; 24 September – head and 6 October – right shoulder, with the neckline at 3393.5).
Today’s upside move was propelled from the bounce on the 3282.2 support level. This means that the expected breakdown below that area following yesterday’s closing violation was not confirmed. The focus of buyers now rests at 3335.5, with the violated neckline of the completed reverse head and shoulders pattern now constituting the next upside target at 3393.5.
On the other hand, if the sour risk sentiment overcomes the temporary euphoria from the market data, we could see 3282.2 come under renewed pressure from sellers. If sellers take out this area, expect the 3228.4 support to become the new target. Below this level, 3137.0 and 3070.8 constitute new targets to the south. This move would be supported by the price extending below the 24 October trough (head of the previous pattern), on which a new neckline that completes the double top pattern would now exist.