USDTRY At 30-Month Highs Amid USD Strength


USDTRY trades higher for the ninth session out of the last ten in a rally that drove the price to September 2018 highs. Investors run away from emerging markets currencies to the safe-haven assets as the coronavirus disruptions spread around the globe, pushing the global economy into recession.

CBRT cut its one-week repo rate by 100 basis points to 9.75% on March 17th, in an emergency move two days ahead of a scheduled policy meeting. That was the seventh consecutive rate cut. Turkey’s central bank said that the sharp fall in crude oil and metal prices affected the inflation outlook favourably despite the recent depreciation in the Turkish lira. Turkey Foreign Arrivals reported down to 3.8% in February from the previous 16.1% as the downside risks increased due to the weakening in international trade and travel restrictions.

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USDTRY Technical Analysis

USDTRY is 0.66% higher at 6.6005, making fresh 30-month highs as the USD funding crunch continue to weigh on the pair. The technical picture is bullish for the USDTRY as long as the pair is trading above the 6.00 psychological mark. 

On the upside, first resistance for USDTRY stands at 6.6013 the daily high. Next hurdle on the upside for the pair is at 6.7084 the high from September 5, 2018. The next supply zone awaits at 6.8047 the high from August 30, 2018.

On the other side, the first support for the USDTRY pair stands at 6.5727 the daily low. If the USDTRY pair breaks below, the next critical support level stands at 6.4680 the low from Friday’s trading session. A break below might test 6.3821 the low from March 17, 2020.  

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