USD/RUB Forecast as European Natural Gas Prices Rebound

The USD/RUB forex exchange rate has remained in a tight range in the past few months as the war in Ukraine rages on. It was trading at 60 on Wednesday, where it has remained in the past few weeks. This price is about 20% above the lowest level this year and 60% below its all-time high of 154. 

Oil and natural gas prices support ruble

The USD to RUB exchange rate has been in a consolidation phase since May as investors watch the performance of the Russian economy. To a large extent, the Russian economy is doing just fine, helped by higher oil prices. Recent data suggests that the economy has shrunk. However, this contraction has been better than what most analysts were expecting. 

The Russian ruble has been supported by elevated oil prices, with a barrel going for about $90. Its oil exports have held steady, helped by demand from India and China. It has also outmaneuvered the European Union by diverting oil to Asia. The EU will ban seaborne Russian oil imports, or about 1 million barrels per day.

Russia’s oil exports have done well. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the country’s oil exports rose by 165k barrels in October to 7.7 million barrels. It exported 1.5 million barrels per day to the European Union.

Russia has also exported oil using dark tankers with opaque ownership structures. That has seen its oil flow in countries like the United States. 

The USD/RUB price has consolidated as natural gas price have staged a comeback. European natural gas prices rose by 16% in the futures market. This happened as forecasts for colder winter and supplies from Norway have been limited. A report by Maxar said that temperatures in Berlin will drop below zero in winter.

USD/RUB price forecast

The daily chart reveals that the USD to RUB exchange rate has been in a consolidation phase recently. In this period, it has remained at the 50-day and 25-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index has slept at the neutral point of 50. It has also formed what looks like an ascending triangle pattern.

Therefore, the USD/RUB rate will remain in this range for a while and then have a bullish breakout in the coming days. If this happens, the next key level to watch will be at 70. A drop below the support at 55 will invalidate the bearish view.