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USD/RUB Forecast Ahead of the FOMC Decision

Price action on the USD/RUB in the last two months has been largely uneventful. From seeing plenty of action in February – June as the Russia-Ukraine war raged, the pair’s activity has largely thinned out into a long-drawn consolidation. Even fundamental triggers for each component currency do not seem to move the pair any longer, leaving the USD/RUB with very few trading opportunities best suited for range traders. 

The Ruble remains at the centre of Russian efforts to cushion the effects of sanctions after it emerged that several countries are being offered the opportunity to trade with Russia in Rubles. Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently said that Turkey will pay for 25% of its Russian gas purchases in Rubles.

Myanmar’s military junta is also said to favour the Ruble as one of the potential currencies that will form the crux of its foreign reserves. China and Russia already have a crude oil swap agreement that will see Beijing pay for discounted Russian oil in Rubles. 

However, these moves have not added significant strength to the Ruble recently. As such, the USD/RUB remains range-bound and presents limited range-trading opportunities. The USD/RUB is up 1.55% on the day, ahead of the FOMC decision. 

USD/RUB Forecast

The pair remains range-bound ahead of the FOMC decision, bordered by the rectangle with upper and lower boundaries at 62.1546 and 58.3740. The 60.9581 resistance (8 July low) and the 62.1546 price mark are the targets to beat. If the bulls uncap these barriers, the 64.4803 resistance becomes the next target in line. 67.9599 (6 July high) and 70.4536 are the other targets of note to the north. 

On the flip side, rejection and 60.9581 and eventual breakdown of the lower border of the rectangle at 58.3740 and 57.5858 (27 July low) clear the way for the bears to attain the 56.1107 support initially (22 July low). 53.8600 (2 July low) and 51.6225 (1 July low) form additional targets to the south. 

USD/RUB: Daily Chart