UK retail sales and PMI preview: Implications for the GBP/USD

The GBP/USD price rocketed higher yesterday as US treasury yields continued rising. The pair settled at a multi-year high of 1.3985. Today, the focus will be on the UK retail sales and flash manufacturing and services PMI data.

GBP/USD news: The pound sterling has reacted to several important numbers this week, including the UK inflation data. Today, the pair will react to the closely-watched UK retail sales numbers that will come at 07:00 GMT. 

Economists expect the data to show that core sales declined by 2.6% in January after rising by 0.4% in December. This will lead to a 2.2% annual increase. Further, the headline sales are expected to decline at an annual pace of 1.3%. Therefore, better numbers will be good for the GBP/USD since they will reduce the chances for the Bank of England (BOE) cutting rates.


Markit will also release the flash PMIs that will likely show strong manufacturing progress and emerging services PMIs. From the United States, the pair will react to the existing home sales and PMI numbers.

GBP/USD forecast

The GBP/USD rose sharply yesterday. On the four-hour chart, the pair has moved above the important support at 1.3758 and the short and longer-term moving averages. The price is also at the middle of the ascending regression trend. Therefore, in my view, the pair will continue rising as bulls eye the upper side of the ascending channel that is clear on the daily chart. On the flip side, a drop below 1.3830 will invalidate this trend.

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