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Silver Price Prediction: A Fed Rate Hike Could Send Silver Below $18.20

Silver prices on the XAG/USD chart have started the week positively after a series of price rejections by the bulls from the $18.213 price pivot. Silver price is now in consolidation mode, resulting from a sustained downtrend move. This sets up the potential for a downside move that will bring back bearish silver price predictions into play if the expected outcome plays out. 

Silver price predictions to the upside remain off the table for now, as the industrial metal’s recovery attempts have been truncated by a slew of poor manufacturing PMI data from across the world. Business activity in the manufacturing sector in the US, Eurozone and UK have all fallen below expectations.

Also reinforcing the pullback from intraday highs was the disappointing data from the UK, where the CBI Industrial Order Expectations fell from 18 points to 8 points, well below the expected value of 13 points. China’s COVID-19 situation and attendant lockdowns are also putting pressure on silver prices.

The next fundamental trigger for silver prices would be the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. The consensus is for the FOMC to deliver a 75bps rate hike. If the Fed pushes this to a 100bps rate hike, this could make silver price predictions head to the deep end of the waters.

Silver Price Prediction

The price continues to trade in the range formed by the 18.319 support and the 18.935 resistance. There is an intervening barrier at 18.553. A break of the 18.935 ceiling clears the pathway toward 19.463, where the 7 July high is located. Additional barriers to the north include 20.212 (4 July high) and 20.661 (29 June 2022 low). 21.248 becomes available if the bulls uncap the barrier at 20.661.

On the other hand, a decline below the 18.648 intervening barrier puts the 18.213 support under pressure. Below this price mark, 17.548 (18 May 2020 high) and 16.953 (15 June 2020 low) form the additional downside targets the bears would encounter before 16.563 becomes available. 

XAG/USD: 4-hour Chart