Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock price has been on a scintillating run in the last month, gaining 29% in that period. The stock rose by 8.2% in August, and has shown an even stronger momentum in September, going up by 27% since the month began.
The momentum is driven by renewed optimism after the United States and its trade partners began striking trade deals, halting weeks of high tariff turmoil.
In addition, CEO Elon Musk’s move to purchase about $1 billion worth of stock in mid-September has boosted investor confidence. This is in addition to an earlier commitment to stay at the helm pf the company for the next five years.
TSLA stock price trades at $425 as of this writing, its highest level since January 2025. In addition, its market capitalisation has risen to $1.373 trillion dollar, lifting it to become the ninth most valuable company in the world by that metric. Furthermore, TSLA is up by 9.1% year-to-date as of this writing. In addition, investors are increasingly viewing the company as a robotics and AI-tech company, and not just an automaker.
Tesla’s earnings for the second quarter of 2025 came out on July 23, 2025. They revealed a tough quarter, with car sales declining, profits under pressure, and external variables like policy changes and political sentiment were also at play.
The total revenue was $22.5 billion, which is 12% less than the $25.05 billion reported in Q2 2024. This was slightly more than what analysts had forecasted, which was between $22.4 billion and $22.64 billion.
Automotive revenues declined 16% year over year, mostly because of fewer deliveries and pressure on prices. Adjusted EPS was $0.40, which is 23% lower than the $0.52 it was a year ago. This was in line with market forecasts.
Net income fell 16% from last year to $1.17 billion. Operating income went down by 42% to $923 million, which gave the company a 4.1% operating margin. This was lower than previous year’s levels and was attributed to larger investments in AI and stock-based compensation.
That was hardly a surprise, considering the harsh economic environment created by shifting US trade policy. In addition, Musk’s controversial political statements and involvement with DOGE might have played a part, with a particular negative publicity seen in Europe.
Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles in the second quarter of calendar 2025, which is a significant drop from the corresponding period last year when the company shipped 443,956 vehicle. This suggests that deliveries in Q2 2025 were about 13.5% lower than in the comparable quarter of 2024.
Deliveries in Q2 2025 were those of Q1 2025, which were 336,681. However, when compared to the same time last year, the company’s core automotive industry seems to be facing a more complex and challenging situation.
As of September 18,2025 Tesla stock is trading between $409 and $425 on the intraday session. However, with Tesla stock price’s recent upsurge comes the question of sustainability, and the company faces significant risks. The sharp rise in the stock’s value and the high price-to-earnings ratio provides little room for error. The stock has shown signs of consolidation after a brief recovery from earlier lows this year.
CEO Elon Musk previously stated in 2024 that the company would pay greater attention to autonomous driving, powered by AI. At the helm of that mission is the development of Robotaxis, whose market trials begun Austin, Texas, in June 2025.
Tesla’s georeferenced area for the robotaxi trials in Austin, Texas has nearly doubled from 91 square miles at launch on June 22, 2025 to 173 square miles in late August. This is a commendable growth, especially bearing in mind that no major incidents have been reported so far.
On September 5, the Robotaxi app went public and is now accessible for download. The waitlist for access will soon be expanded. An upgrade on September 4 provided live car commands, alerts for ride cancellations, and the ability to show license plates in watch activities. On September 13, Tesla unveiled a supervised Robotaxi service that would tie into supervised FSD and cost $99 per month
In addition, the company is speeding up its supervised Full Self Drive (FSD) trials with rollouts in Australia, New Zealand, Germany, France, Norway and Sweden in the last month. Ultimately, the company aims to have a full global supervised FSD rollout in 2026.
The Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) gave the green light for public road testing on September 12, so trials will start soon start in Las Vegas. The testing in the Bay Area began in July, and there are plans to use Model Y for Robotaxi in New York City.
Recent FSD tests in that area successfully deal with urban commotion. Meanwhile, on August 3, Musk mentioned that Chicago and other cities might follow suit if regulations are the same as those applied to Waymo. Furthermore, job postings point to a big rollout in the U.S. around late 2025.
Tesla’s stock performance in 2025 has been a rollercoaster, reflecting both macroeconomic trends and company-specific challenges. While Tesla remains a dominant player in the EV market, its European sales have taken a hit, partly due to Musk’s involvement in both U.S. and European politics, which has sparked controversy among consumers.
His outspoken views and engagements in political debates have led to a decline in Tesla’s brand perception in key European markets, impacting demand. Meanwhile, in the U.S., shifting EV policies and government incentives have added to market uncertainty, influencing investor sentiment.
Despite these headwinds, Tesla continues to push forward with production ramp-ups and technological advancements, keeping the stock in focus for traders and long-term investors alike.
Tesla has been facing rising competition in China, and that is about to go a notch higher with the launch of Xiaomi’s YU7 electric SUV. The vehicle is seen as a direct competitor to Tesla’s Model Y, the American EV maker’s best-selling model in China. The YU7 is 8 inches longer than the Model Y, has impressive specifications and comes with up to 759 kilometers (472 miles) range and a price bracket of between $35,000-$40,000.
While Musk’s stock purchase is getting a lot of attention, but September has been a mixed bag for Tesla. On September 16, the NHTSA began looking into 174,000 2021 Model Ys because of reported malfunctions with their electronic door handles. There were nine instances of such malfunctions, which might have trapped people inside, which is a major safety issue. This might lead to recalls, which would hurt the company’s reputation at a time when demand for EVs is faltering.
However, Tesla’s recent Q1 2025 report revealed a 67.5% drop in net income, and its European market share declined to just 0.7%, signaling potential risks for long-term investors.
Tesla introduced the Model 3 Performance, featuring 460 horsepower and an acceleration of 0-100 km/h in just 2.9 seconds. The new version aims to attract performance enthusiasts and compete with high-performance electric vehicles.
The Tesla Cybertruck received a five-star overall safety rating from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), with particular excellence in side crash scenarios. This reinforces Tesla’s commitment to safety in its innovative EV lineup.
A rare disagreement surfaced in late February between Donald Trump and Elon Musk regarding Tesla’s India expansion plans. This geopolitical tension adds another layer of complexity to Tesla’s global strategy and supply chain considerations.
Regulators have cited Tesla for workplace safety violations following a worker’s death at its Austin factory. This raises concerns about Tesla’s labor practices and regulatory scrutiny.
Several analysts have recently updated their forecasts:
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas raised his bull case to $800, with a base scenario of $430, citing Tesla’s long-term potential in AI-driven mobility and services.
Mizuho Securities’ Vijay Rakesh upgraded Tesla to Outperform with a new target range between $515 and $681, largely based on progress in Full Self-Driving (FSD) and the expected launch of the Cybercab robotaxi in mid-2025.
24/7 Wall St projects that Tesla could reach $351.73 by the end of 2025.
TradersUnion sees a more moderate price of $349 by year-end, with a long-term target of $392 in 2029.
ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, maintains one of the most bullish long-term projections, estimating Tesla could reach $2,600 within 5 years, driven by large-scale monetization of robotaxi services and AI capabilities.
Tesla remains a highly watched stock, with a mix of positive product developments and regulatory challenges shaping its trajectory. Investors should monitor the $358 resistance level for a potential breakout or a drop below $340 for a bearish shift.
With the Model 3 Performance launch, strong Cybertruck safety rating, and India expansion plans, Tesla’s long-term growth narrative remains strong. However, concerns over recalls and workplace safety violations could lead to short-term volatility.
Tesla’s China rivals BYD, Xpeng and Nio reported better-than-expected deliveries in April 2025. BYD sold 380,089 units NEVs up by 21.24% year-on-year, in what was its fifth successive record-breaking monthly sale.
Tesla saw its sales decline for the fourth successive month in Germany in April, delivering 885 units for the month, equivalent to a 45.9% YoY drop. UK sales were also poor, coming in at 512 units sold, down from 1,352 sold in April 2024. That figure resulted in Tesla’s share of the UK vehicle market decline from 12.5% to 9.3% YoY in April.
On the other hand, Chinese EV maker, BYD saw its UK sales grow by 658% to 2,511 in April . Meanwhile, its sales in Germany grew by more than eight times to 2,566 units.
Elsewhere, another Chinese EV manufacturer, Nio sold 23,900 cars, its second-highest ever monthly sales. Tesla sold 336,681 vehicles in Q1 2025, a 13% YoY decline. Furthermore, the figure missed analysts’ estimate of between 360,000 and 370,000 vehicles for the quarter. The company does not release its monthly sales figures in China, but attributed its earnings decline to tightening competition in China.
With China offering subsidies to its EV manufacturers, former US President Joe Biden announced on May 14 2024 a four-fold increase in the tariff rates for EVs made in China from 25% to 100%. That figure was then raised higher under Donald Trump to reach 145% on all imports from China. In retaliation, China slapped 125% interest on US goods.
However, the world’s two largest economies agreed to cut trade tariffs on May 11, with the US rates slashed to 30% and China truncating its tariffs to 10%. The rates will remain effective for 90 days pending the outcome of trade negotiations between their delegations. As a result, Tesla stock price outlook has renewed impetus for near and medium-term gains.
The company announced in mid-2024 that it had reduced the price tag on its Full Self Driving (FSD) software from $1,2000 to $8,000 for its US customers. Tesla has been constantly lowering its prices in different regions since the start of 2023. While this has improved the company’s sales, the profit margins have also taken a big hit.
Elon Musk’s electric car maker has also revised its prices in its two leading markets in recent times. In the United States, customers who trade in their old vehicle for a new Tesla by March 31 2024, will receive 5,000 free Supercharging miles. In February, the company offered a discount of $1,000 on its Model Y rear-wheel drive and Model Y Long Range.
In China, the company announced incentives worth about $4, 800 for customers buying existing stocks of Model 3 sedans and Model Y SUVs.
Another notable Tesla stock news was Bill Miller, a legendary investor is shorting Tesla. He warned that he would continue shorting the stock if it made more positive moves. His rationale was that Tesla was highly overvalued as it was valued at a higher valuation than the other five auto companies like General Motors, Ford, and Toyota.
The falling share prices have precipitated Tesla’s fall from the top 10 ranked companies globally by market capitalisation. The company has shed more than a 17% its value in 2025, resulting in sentiment around it. There are currently 3.19 billion total outstanding shares of Tesla in the market. Multiplying the current Tesla stock price of $425 with the total outstanding shares gives a Tesla market cap of $1.373 trillion. That makes it the world’s 9th most valuable company by market capitalisation.
Elon Musk previously disclosed a Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) donation that he made in 2022 to a charity. According to a filing to the US regulator, the tech billionaire donated $1.95 billion in Tesla stock to charity in 2022. However, the name of the charity recipient, who received around 11.6 million shares, hasn’t been revealed.
Recently, Tesla has taken a step back from its plans to produce batteries in Germany. Instead, the EV maker will carry out the same production at its US facility due to favorable tax incentives. The discarded German battery facility was to be founded in Brandenburg, Germany.
Tesla launched its initial public offering in 2010. When it went public, the Tesla stock price was trading at a split-adjusted rate of $5. Since then, the TSLA stock has jumped by more than 28,000%, making it one of the best performers in the market.
While the long-term performance of the TSLA share has been good, the journey to the top has not been smooth. As shown below, the stock declined by 38% within a few months in 2015. Similarly, it then dropped by 56% within a few months in 2019. At the time, Elon Musk even warned that he had the funds secure to take the company private.
Tesla is a highly divisive company. On the one hand, there are die-hard fans like Cathie Wood who believe that the company will do well and thrive in the future. On the other side, there are analysts and investors like Scotty Kilmer and Bill Miller who believe that the promised future of EVs is only a mirage. He believes that there will be no mass demand for the company.
From a fundamental perspective, Tesla is no longer a good investment because of its valuation and competition. The company is valued at over $561 billion while companies like Toyota and Volkswagen are valued at less than $292 billion and $71 billion respectively. GM and Ford are valued at about $50 billion. Therefore, it is hard to justify Tesla’s valuation.
Further, the company is facing significant competition from incumbent companies like GM and Ford and upstarts like Rivian and Lucid. Rivian and Ford are its biggest threats because it has still not launched its truck product. Also, it is unclear whether the company’s truck will be successful since it seems like a relatively niche product.
Further, the company seems to be venturing in unchartered territory with its AI venture and focus on Robotaxis. This is a market that could require massive desruptive capabilities, considering that many people and governments still cringe at self-driving technology. If this venture fails, it could lead to massive losses by Tesla. Also, this is a long-term venture with a timeline of 6-10 years.
On the other hand, proponents say that Tesla has a strong market share in the EV industry, a strong supercharger network, and a loyal fanbase.
A few years ago, there were concerns that Tesla would never be a profitable company. This view has changed recently when the company started making strong profits. It has a net income margin of 10%, which is expected to grow as it boosts its scale.
Tesla turned its first profit in 2020 when it made $862 million in net profit. The figure rose to more than $5.5 billion in 2021 and over $11 billion in the past four straight quarters. Tesla made a net income of $3.3 billion in Q1 of 2022 followed by $2.5 billion and $3.2 billion in the next two quarters. Also, after a 75% drawdown in 2022, Tesla stock price rebounded strongly in 2023. Therefore, we could see a repeat of the same trend in the near future.
Most analysts believe that Tesla is an overvalued company. However, most of them justify this valuation because of its market share, revenue and unit growth, and upcoming projects including FSD and AI . According to a 12-month forecast by 31 analysts at tipranks.com, TSLA share price will likely be at an average of $211.46, with a high target of $310 and a low target of $85.00, signaling a substantial chance of volatility.
NASDAQ: TSLA currently trades above the middle Bollinger Band level of $211.78, and has critical support corresponding to the lower band at $188.40. Therefore, the upside will likely prevail if it stays above $211.78. However, a break below the support mark would be a red flag. Furthermore, a break above the upper band at $235.15 would denote a potential bullish rally.
Due to a lower low on the weekly chart, Tesla stock price forecast doesn’t appear to be very bullish for the next couple of months. This may change if the bulls clear the supply zone which lies above $204. Until then, there will always be another chance for the bears to make a comeback.
US inflation rate and Fed interest rate decisions will be major factors affecting Tesla shares and other US equities over the next few months.
I expect that TSLA shares will be significantly higher than where they are today by 2025 and 2030. At the time, the company will be highly profitable as the world moves to electric cars. As shown below, analysts at Wallet Investor expect that the stock will be trading at above $300 in 2025. Similarly, Cathie Wood believes that the stock will be over $3,000 by 2030. Ron Baron, who is a very successful fund manager, expects the TSLA stock price to hit $1500 by 2030.
Tesla is a publicly traded company, meaning that anyone can buy the stock. As mentioned, Elon Musk owns about 13% of the company. At the same time, there are about 1,937 institutional investors who own 41% of the company. This means that retail investors own about 42% of the company. The biggest Tesla shareholders are Blackrock, Vanguard, Capital Group, and Baillie Gifford.
By 2040, Tesla’s business is likely to look very different from today. The company has ambitious goals, ranging from self-driving cars and robotaxis to energy storage and AI-driven automation. If Tesla successfully expands into these areas, its valuation could multiply, making it one of the most influential companies of the decade. However, competition in the EV and AI sectors will be much fiercer, meaning Tesla will need to maintain its technological edge to remain dominant. While some analysts predict Tesla stock could trade above $3,000 per share by then, others warn that regulatory challenges and shifting market trends could slow its growth.
Tesla’s stock has faced a turbulent start to 2025, balancing growth optimism with political and market pressures. The company’s $1.2 trillion market cap reflects its strong position, but recent European sales declines due to Elon Musk’s political influence in the region have raised concerns among investors. Meanwhile, U.S. policies on EV incentives, tariffs, and competition from Chinese automakers are shaping Tesla’s outlook.
Despite these challenges, Tesla continues to push forward, with new vehicle models, improved battery technology, and AI-driven advancements keeping it in the spotlight. Whether the stock can regain bullish momentum will depend on demand trends, production efficiency, and the company’s ability to navigate shifting regulations.
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This post was last modified on Sep 18, 2025, 13:31 BST 13:31