- A prolonged profit taking after the strong gains in 2025 has subdued Nvidia stock this year, with only 0.1% in gains
- AI hyperscalers plan $527 billion in capex this year, boosting prospects of forecast-beating earnings by Nvidia
- Concerns still remain over Nvidia's valuation, and margin, despite increased capex by its leading customers
Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been testing investors’ patience since November 2025. The stock hasn’t moved much, even as the market looked for new opportunities. As of this writing, Nvidia stock gains for the year were only 0.1%. This came after a period where the stock fell to $171.88 on February 5, before jumping more than 10% in the following days.
This recent boost has pushed the price above key moving averages, and investors are wondering if it can last.
$500 Billion Infrastructure Windfall Catalyses NVDA Rebound
Nvidia stock’s stagnation since late 2025 is primarily due to investors cashing out after a great year. There are also worries about rising competition and the stock’s price being high compared to its expected earnings.
This recent boost isn’t just based on speculation, but it’s supported by real money. Goldman Sachs reports that major AI companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta are expected to spend over $527 billion in 2026 in capex.
Amazon recently announced a $200 billion spending plan over several years. This has renewed optimism, with Goldman Sachs estimating Nvidia’s Q4 revenue at $67.3 billion, which is $2 billion higher than what most analysts expect.
Path to Reclaiming $200
The desire to invest in AI is still strong, with tech giants increasing their spending in 2026. However, there are concerns about whether these investments will pay off, with some economists warning of a bubble.
The recent rebound in Nvidia’s stock price raises the possibility of it reaching $200 again, a level last seen in October 2025. Bloomberg Professional Insights predicted on January 23 that Nvidia could generate $168 billion in cash flow in 2026, which could support further growth if AI applications make money. Yet, they also warn of the risk of a bubble due to overinvestment.
While most observers expect a strong rally driven by AI demand, some disagree. They point out that increasing investments may not lead to higher returns, and the surge in stock price may not last if earnings show declining profits.
A Nvidia stock rally is realisable if the company’s results show it is still dominant. But some believe that competition from AMD and Broadcom could take away some of its market share. This could make it harder for Nvidia to meet expectations and delay its stock reaching $200.
Nvidia Stock Price Forecast
Nvidia stock RSI is hovering around 55, indicating there is still plenty of room before the stock hits overbought territory. The immediate hurdle sits at $194.49, which is the 1-month high. Beyond that, the psychological barrier of $200 aligns with the second-level pivot resistance. Strong floors are established at the 20-day EMA at $179.70 and $170.43.
Nvidia stock price on the daily chart with key levels of resistance and support on February 10, 2026. Created on TradingView
Investors are taking profits after strong gains in 2025. The stock’s high price compared to its expected earnings and concerns about AI investments not paying off are creating challenges.
Yes. With the recent increase above $183 and big spending plans from companies like Amazon, momentum is building. To reach $200, the stock needs to break through the $194.50 resistance with high trading volume.
The high spending of $527 billion boosts demand for GPUs, but overinvestment without returns could lower profit margins and challenge optimistic growth expectations amid concerns about a potential bubble.