BT Share Price Reclaims Key Moving Averages
BT Group shares are showing a strong bullish reversal this Thursday, trading comfortably above their 200-day moving average of 191.28p. After a period of pressure that saw the stock dip toward 179p earlier in the year, the “post-Q3 rally” has pushed the price toward the upper end of its 52-week range. The stock is currently testing resistance near 207p, with high trading volumes of over 33 million shares indicating renewed institutional interest.
The rally is supported by BT’s ability to maintain its full-year financial guidance despite a 4% dip in Q3 underlying revenue to £5.0 billion. While consumer and business segments faced headwinds, the market has focused on the company’s aggressive cost-cutting measures, which helped keep EBITDA relatively stable at £2.1 billion.
Openreach and the “Fiber-to-the-Premises” Surge
The primary catalyst for the stock’s recent strength is the performance of Openreach, BT’s crown-jewel infrastructure subsidiary. Openreach is on track to reach its massive target of 25 million premises by December 2026. In the most recent quarter, full-fiber (FTTP) demand reached record levels, with the take-up rate increasing to over 38%.
- Line Loss Improvement: While Openreach lost 210,000 broadband lines, this was better than the 238,000 losses analysts had feared.
- ARPU Growth: Openreach broadband ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) grew 4% to £16.8, driven by price adjustments and the migration of customers to higher-speed fiber plans.
- Leadership Shakeup: In a major move today, BT announced that Openreach head Clive Selley will move to lead BT International, with Katie Mulligan taking over the reins at Openreach to maintain the build-out momentum.
BT Group Financial Outlook: The Path to £3 Billion Cash Flow
CEO Allison Kirkby has reiterated the bank’s long-term goal to transform BT into a leaner, more cash-generative machine. The company expects to reach £2.0 billion in free cash flow by 2027 and £3.0 billion per year by the end of the decade as capital expenditure on the fiber build-out finally peaks and begins to subside.
However, risks remain on the horizon. BT’s large pension deficit continues to cost approximately £800 million per year to service, while the debt-to-equity ratio remains high at 187.58. Additionally, intense competition from “alt-nets” (alternative fiber providers) could squeeze retail margins in the Consumer and Business segments throughout 2026.
BT.A Technical Outlook
From a technical standpoint, the chart has turned significantly more optimistic:
- Immediate Support (201p): This level, where recent insider buying occurred, acts as a firm floor for the current rally.
- Key Resistance (215p – 223p): A break above the August high of 215p would likely lead to a test of the 52-week high at 223.60p.
BT Group Share Price Conclusion: Is the “Fiber Pivot” Finally Paying Off?
BT Group is finally reaping the rewards of its multi-billion pound infrastructure investment. By meeting guidance and showing resilience in Openreach, the bank has convinced many skeptics that the worst of the “capex peak” is behind them. While the pension and debt burdens are significant, the 4.1% dividend yield and the roadmap to massive cash flow growth by 2030 make BT one of the most interesting “value plays” in the FTSE 100 today.
Shares are buoyed by strong Openreach fiber demand, a reiteration of full-year profit guidance, and high-profile insider buying at the 201p level.
As of February 2026, BT offers a prospective dividend yield of approximately 4.1%, backed by a progressive payout policy.