Nvidia Share Price Forecast: Several Headwinds to Navigate

Following yesterday’s bullish performance on the stock, the Nvidia share price is trading lower in premarket trading. The stock appears to be bearing some of the brunts that Apple’s selloff is bringing to bear on tech stocks. 

A report that Apple intends to slow the production of the iPhone has spooked the Nasdaq index, leading to several tech stocks being offered in premarket trading Thursday. On Wednesday, Apple announced that it would tell suppliers to cut the assembly of close to 6 million units of the iPhone 14 in the second half of 2022. The Wednesday announcement appears to have spooked several technology stocks, with the Nvidia share price down 1.86% as of writing. 

There are also indications in the gaming world that the pricing of Nvidia’s latest gaming cards may lead to a drop in sales and consequently limit the recovery of the Nvidia share price. The cheapest of the GeForce RTX 40-series cards costs $900, a 28.5% increase over the previous series. It was thought that the lull in crypto mining caused by the market crash would free up supply for gaming PCs and make the new series cheaper. 

From a technical standpoint, the Nvidia share price looks set for a recovery if the falling wedge pattern resolves with a retracement rally. The extent of this rally remains guarded, as hawkish moves by the US Federal Reserve continue to exert a downward pull on the entire Nasdaq index. 

Nvidia Share Price Forecast

The upper edge of the falling wedge lies vulnerable as the price action seeks to complete the breakout and upward push of price action. The measured move of the pattern could attain completion at 148.33 (6/14 July lows).

This move has to break beyond the 134.27 resistance (6 September low and 19 September high) to attain completion. A further push to the north makes 162.54 (19 July and 26 August lows) available as a new target, leaving 178.70 (20 July and 26 August highs) as another potential target to the north. 

On the flip side, a bullish break of the pattern is negated if there is a rejection of price and a pullback at the wedge’s upper border. This outlook would see 115.43 (8 March 2021 low) becoming the initial downside target. A breakdown of this pivot allows the bears access to the 13 July 2020 high at 107.54. 98.27 (24 July 2020 low) forms an additional harvest point for the bears if the bulls fail to defend 107.54.

Nvidia: Daily Chart