Is BP Share Price a Bargain or Trap After the Dividend Cut?

FTSE 100
FTSE 100

BP share price is spiking today as traders reflect on the company’s second-quarter earnings. The shares are trading at 292p,which is close to this year’s low of 225p. The stock is also close to its lowest level since October 199.

BP second quarter earnings

BP, the energy supermajor, reported a significant quarterly loss today. This loss reflected the relatively low oil prices in the first part of the quarter and the substantial write-down that the company did a few weeks ago.

In total, the company lost $6.7 billion in the second quarter, which was in line with what analysts were expecting. That was significantly lower than the $2.8 billion profit it made in the second quarter of 2019. The operating loss for the quarter was $16.8 billion, which included the $10.9 billion write down.

Most importantly, BP said that it would halve its dividend to 5.25 cents per share from the previous 10.5 cents.

BP is not the only energy giant in trouble. Last week, Royal Dutch Shell share pricedeclined sharply after the company reported a sharp loss as well.

On a positive side, crude oil prices, which tend to have a relationship with BP share price, have been rising. Brent crude has remained above $40 for weeks, reflecting that demand is relatively stable.

Is BP share price too cheap to buy?

BP share price has had a challenging period. In the past five years, the shares have lost more than 20% of their value. That compares with the 0.5% decline of the FTSE 100. But, the shares have performed better than that of the Royal Dutch Shell.

In the past 12 months, BP share price has dropped by more than 40% while Royal Dutch Shell and the FTSE 100 have fallen by 55% and 16%, respectively.

Meanwhile, as shown below, analysts are optimistic that BP stock price will recover. In a report last week, analysts at Goldman Sachs reiterated their bullish thoughts on the stock. They expect it to almost double to 530p. Similarly, analysts at JP Morgan have upgraded their outlook for the stock to 425p while those at Barclays expect it to climb to 400p. Those at Jefferies see BP shares rising to 350p.

As I have written before, BP share price movement faces an uphill battle for two main reasons. First, its performance depends, in part, to crude oil price, a factor that BP has no control about. Second, investors are increasingly turning against oil companies as they focus on ESG. Now, the fact that the company has slashed its dividend makes it less attractive to investors.

BP share Price forecasts by analysts

BP share price

BP stock price technical forecast

The BP share price is trading at 292p. On the daily chart, the price is below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This retracement connects the highest and lowest levels this year. Also, the price is below the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages. It is also slightly below the descending trend line that is shown in green. Therefore, even with the today’s jump, the outlook for BP share price is bearish.

On the flip side, a move above 317p will invalidate this bearish trend. This price is its highest level in June and is also slightly above the 50-day EMA.

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BP Share Price forecast

BP share price

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