- Summary:
- The Nifty 50 Index defied US trade tariff sentiment to register significant gains in April, but May has historically registered low returns.
Nifty 50 Index has been struggling to break above 24,400 points for the last six sessions, signaling an underlying weakness after a strong uptrend in the previous two weeks. The Index is currently near its highest since mid-December, recovering a substantial portion of the losses recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The month of May has historically brought modest gains in the Indian equities market, with the Nifty 50 Index averaging +1.1% in the last ten years. However, the fundamentals at play are significantly different this time round, with US trade tariffs having disrupted the market sentiment.
That said, the Index went against the grain in the aftermath of the tariff announcement, having risen by about 3,000 points since April 21. With the US Vice President JD Vance having led a trade negotiation delegation in India last week, the two nations are likely to announce a breakthrough in the coming days. US President Donald Trump affirmed this optimistic view on Wednesday.
Such an outcome could boost investor confidence and bring tailwinds to the market. However, the emerging geopolitical tensions between Indian and Pakistan over the Kashmir attacks could slow down gains by the Nifty 50 Index and the broader Indian equities market. The nuclear-armed neighbours have been embroiled in accusations and counter-accusations in recent days, with Pakistan claiming on Tuesday that it had “credible evidence” that India was preparing military action against it.
Nifty 50 Index Prediction
Nifty 50 Index pivots at 24,420 point and resistance at that level signals control by the sellers. Immediate support will likely be at 24,310 points, but an extended downward momentum will break below that level and could go lower to test 23,290.
Conversely, breaking above 24,420 will shift the momentum to the upside. In that case, the first resistance is likely to come at 24,450. The downside thesis will be invalid if the Index breaks above that level, and such momentum could drive gains further up to test 24,480 points.
