Here’s Why the ITV Share Price is at Risk of a 10% Drop to 100p

The ITV share price has been in freefall in the past few days as the number of Covid cases rises putting risk at the advertising market. The stock is also following the intrigues of the Channel 4 privatisation plan put forward by the government. It ended Wednesday at 115p, which was about 13% below the highest point this year.

ITV news. ITV is a leading British broadcaster that is beloved because of its strong content offerings. Some of its strongest offerings are Love Island, the Morning After, and Good Morning Britain. The company makes most of its revenue from advertising. Therefore, there are concerns that the new wave of the Delta virus will likely affect the advertising industry. 

The company’s latest financial results show that the firm was affected by the pandemic. In 2020, its revenue declined by 16% to 2.78 billion pounds. This performance was driven by ITV Studios, whose revenue declined by 25% as the pandemic disrupted its productions. Total broadcast revenue declined by 8%, with total advertising falling by 11%. Subsequently, the company’s adjusted EBITDA declined by 43%.

Therefore, there is optimism that the company will bounce back as production resumes and companies boost their advertising spending. This explains why the ITV share price rose hy145% from August to June.

The ITV share price is reacting to the ongoing intrigues about Channel 4. In a strongly-worded letter, the company’s board chair criticized the culture minister of its plan to take the company private. The minister has suggested that the company should be bought by ITV or Channel 5. The latter is owned by ViacomCBS. The government argues that the company needs to be privatised in order to compete with American streaming providers like Netflix and Disney+. It is still unclear whether ITV will be interested in acquiring the company.

ITV share price forecast

In my last article, I warned that the ITV stock would decline to about 108p. This prediction was relatively accurate since the stock has already fallen by more than 10% since that article went live. Today, the stock is trading at 115p, which is along the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. It has also declined below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages (MA). Most importantly, it has fallen below the lower line of the rising wedge pattern. 

Therefore, the next key level to watch will be the 38.2% retracement at 103p, which is about 10% below the current level. This prediction will be invalidated if the stock rises above 120p.

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ITV stock chart

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