Gold just made history again. In mid-September 2025, XAU/USD briefly soared past $3,700 per ounce, setting a fresh all-time high and jolting global markets. The surge came just hours after the US Federal Reserve delivered a long-anticipated 25 basis point rate cut, a move that sent the US dollar sliding before it rebounded sharply.
This wasn’t a random spike. Safe-haven demand is roaring back as political and economic tensions build. Since Donald Trump’s second term began, tariff talk has intensified, reviving fears of another trade war and stoking inflation expectations. Investors are front-running the risk by loading up on hard assets, and gold is back in the spotlight.
The Fed may have just opened the door wider. Markets still expect at least two more rate cuts by the end of 2025, though the Federal Open Market Committee is split. That policy uncertainty, layered over stubborn inflation, is proving bullish for bullion. Some traders are already speculating that a post-Jerome Powell Fed could tilt far more dovish in 2026, a scenario that would light a fire under gold.
Meanwhile, China’s central bank is back in the market, quietly building reserves. After pausing late last year, it has reportedly scooped up more than 250,000 ounces in just the past eight weeks. That buying spree adds to the steady drumbeat of demand from emerging market central banks looking to diversify away from the dollar.
The economic picture in the United States remains murky. Jobs growth is holding, but manufacturing and housing data are weakening. That push-pull has money managers rotating into perceived safety. And gold, once again, is acting like the anchor.
With prices hovering near $3,338 after peaking at $3,700, all eyes are now on that record zone. If the dollar stumbles again or the Fed signals deeper cuts, gold could take another run at new highs, and possibly push far beyond them.
This article was originally written in December 2024 and is regularly updated to reflect the latest gold market trends and price action
The US economy signaled stability in May, with the labour market defying trade tariff fears. Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data showed that 139,000 jobs were created during the month, beating analysts’ forecast figure of 130,000, but declining from April’s 147,000. In addition, unemployment rate stayed stable at 4.2%, with hourly earnings rising by 3.9% on an annual basis and by 0.4% month-on-month.
In the wake of these figures, combined with the imminent signing of a trade pact between the US and China, the dollar has managed to limit gains by gold. However, the dollar has performed weakly against other leading currencies in recent weeks amid concerns over a potential contraction of the US economy. The DXY index, which weighs the greenback against a composite of six other currencies, slid to 97.60 this week, the lowest since March 2022.
US Treasuries are substitutes for gold as far as safe-haven investments go, and weaknessess in US trade policy has seen yields wobble. The yields on benchmark 10-year bonds ranged between 4.40%-4.48% in April, amid heightened volatility fueled by trade tariff fears. This provided support for gold price.
However, the rates gained some stability in May, with yields ranging between 4.28% and 4.61%, with concerns over US fiscal deficit and weak performance at the auction market. Also, strong jobs figures have provided strength to the bonds in the first half of June, with a notable improvement in action performance amid rising expectations of Fed easing. As of this writing, yields on the benchmark 10-year bonds were at 4.418%. This will likely put a lid on the XAUUSD trading pair in the near term.
The dollar strength index tracks the strength of the USD against a basket of major global currencies. This index has recently hit YTD lows of 106.83 and could go lower. In the event the DXY index drops below 100 points, it is very hard to see gold below $2,700.
In August 2020, gold price rallied to an all-time high of $2,072.85, surpassing the previous record high of $1,924.77 it hit nine years before. With the subsequent decline, the psychologically crucial zone of $2,000 has remained evasive. However, it has remained above $1,600 since rising above it at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in April 2020.
Gold price crashed to $1,616 on September 28, 2022. This price was about 21.88% from its highest point in 2022. This crash coincided with a period when the Federal Reserve was hiking interest rates aggressively in a bid to fight soaring inflation. It then started rising after signs emerged that inflation was starting to ease in the US.
Gold Update 13/5/2025
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, reversing earlier losses as the initial optimism over the U.S.–China trade détente began to lose steam. After sliding briefly below $2,360 during Asian hours, XAU/USD rebounded to $2,387, as traders recalibrated their expectations on inflation, central bank policy, and the broader risk landscape.
The move higher comes as investors grow wary of lingering structural tensions despite the White House’s latest tariff pause. The safe-haven metal appears to be reclaiming its role as uncertainty around global growth, rate cuts, and geopolitical risk continues to resurface.
Gold’s intraday bounce can be traced to shifting sentiment:
This backdrop is helping gold stabilise above key technical levels even as short-term volatility persists.
Gold’s chart shows signs of strength returning, but the trend remains delicate:
A daily close above $2,400 could re-establish bullish sentiment heading into the week’s U.S. inflation data.
Updated on June 24, 2025
Gold has spent the last few sessions under heavy selling pressure, and the driver has been almost entirely geopolitical.
The week kicked off with heightened risk aversion after Iran fired missiles at the U.S. Al Udeid base in Qatar. Traders feared the worst, but with no casualties or structural damage, fears of escalation cooled quickly. By Monday night, President Donald Trump confirmed that a ceasefire deal had been struck between Iran and Israel, calming nerves across global markets.
At the same time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell added to gold’s headwinds. While he didn’t signal any immediate rate changes, Powell’s tone leaned hawkish, especially around inflation risks from tariffs. He made it clear that policy easing isn’t guaranteed, which dented gold’s safe-haven appeal just as U.S. Treasury yields began climbing again.
As of Tuesday afternoon, spot gold (XAU/USD) is attempting a mild rebound near $3,318, after briefly dipping below the $3,300 mark earlier in the session.
The ceasefire helped gold catch its breath, but it hasn’t exactly reignited buying interest. With geopolitical tensions fading and Powell sticking to a cautious script, traders may treat any bounce as temporary, unless fresh inflation numbers or macro catalysts offer gold a stronger tailwind.
I’ll keep posting my updated outlook on Gold and other assets in my free Telegram group, which you’re welcome to join.
Updated on September 18 2025
Gold prices opened higher on Friday, September 19, tracking firm global cues and renewed buying in the domestic market. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), Gold October futures rose 0.43% to ₹1,09,520 per 10 grams around 9:45 am, while Silver December futures surged 1.31% to ₹1,28,802 per kg.
The uptick came as the US dollar slipped following expectations of further monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve. A weaker dollar makes bullion cheaper for overseas buyers, lifting demand. The rebound also reflects healthy spot demand from jewellers and investors ahead of the upcoming festival season.
In the international market, gold futures opened at $3,677.50 per ounce, up 0.9% from Thursday’s close of $3,643.70. The opening price is also 0.6% higher than the $3,655.50 seen a week ago on September 12. Over the past month, gold has rallied more than 10.4% from $3,330.20 on August 19, 2025, and is up a stunning 43.3% year-on-year from $2,566 on September 19, 2024.
Analysts attribute the rally to a confluence of monetary easing bets, persistent central bank buying, and geopolitical uncertainty. According to Reuters, the CME FedWatch Tool shows traders pricing in a 92% chance of another 25 basis point Fed rate cut in October. Earlier this week, the Fed trimmed its benchmark rate by 25 bps and signalled the possibility of two more cuts by year-end.
Jerome Powell said the median projection for the federal funds rate is now 3.6% at the end of 2025, slightly lower than previous estimates. This shift has helped propel gold to fresh record highs, though short-term volatility remains elevated.
Gold prices in India today are shining bright with a sharp rebound after multiple dips earlier this week. With the domestic rate hovering close to its record-high level, many buyers remain cautious, as soaring prices are straining household budgets. However, festive demand is providing strong underlying support.
On September 19, 24-carat gold stood at ₹1,11,330 per 10 grams, up ₹160. The 22-carat gold rate rose ₹150 to ₹1,02,050, while 18-carat gold jumped ₹120 to ₹83,500. For larger quantities, 100 grams of 24-carat gold now costs ₹11,13,300, 22-carat ₹10,20,500, and 18-carat ₹8,35,000.
Gold’s recent push higher is being fueled by a mix of softening US dollar, growing bets on a Fed rate cut, and renewed geopolitical unease. Investors are stepping back into safe-haven assets as inflation concerns linger and global risks, from China to the Middle East, keep markets on edge. With real yields slightly lower and demand for defensive plays picking up, gold is reclaiming its momentum.
Gold’s rally isn’t just about chart patterns, it’s about conviction. The market is positioning for rate cuts, policy divergence, and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty.
As long as real yields remain soft and central banks stay cautious, the backdrop supports higher gold. That said, traders should watch for short-term pullbacks, especially if we see a bounce in the dollar or a surprise CPI print from the US.
The broader trend remains bullish. Every dip above $3,368 is likely to be seen as a buying opportunity until the Fed’s next move is clear.
A feasible gold price forecast 2030 is founded on US dollar movements due to the existing inverse correlation. In the event of geopolitical tensions, gold may find some support in its status as a safe haven. However, its upward momentum may be limited by a rise in the demand for the greenback.
Over the past eight years, gold price has risen by about 60%. However, an assumption that the bull market will continue over the next eight years makes a surge of 50% viable. In that case, the gold price forecast for 2030 will be for the precious metal to hit a high of about $4,700 an ounce.
One of the viable ways to invest in gold is by buying bullion. It may be in coins or bars, certified with purity and weight have. Then, one can purchase or sell the physical gold to a reputable dealer. However, security reasons often lead some investors to embrace the route of futures and options.
One of the best ways to invest in gold is through stocks. In the past few years, mergers and acquisitions in the sector has led to a significant consolidation in the sector. Today, only a few large companies dominate the industry.
Barrick Gold, a company valued at $30 billion, is one of the best gold stocks to invest in. Its stock has risen by 21% in the last year and is up by dropped by about 8.1% year-to-date. The other excellent stock to buy is Wheaton Precious Metals, which is worth over $28 billion. Unlike other gold companies, Wheaton does not do the real mining. Instead, the company has purchased rights for key gold assets.
The other best gold stocks to invest in are Newmont Corporation, and Agnico Eagle mine. The chart below shows the performance of some of the biggest gold stocks in the industry.
Futures are contracts in which one agrees to buy or sell the financial asset at the agreed-upon price before the expiry of the contract. For options, the investor has a chance and not an obligation to buy or sell the underlying instrument for as long as the contract is valid. To invest in gold via futures and options, one needs an account with a reputable financial broker. It is possible to trade in gold for a commission through the brokerage account.
ETFs and mutual funds are yet another viable way to invest in gold. A share of this financial instrument represents a specific amount of gold. One needs a brokerage account to trade in gold ETFs or mutual funds, like in futures and options.
In addition to the aforementioned ways of investing in gold, an investor can consider buying stocks of gold mining companies like Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD) or Newmont Corp. (NEM). While the share price is usually correlated to gold price, the firm’s fundamentals are also influential.
The chart below shows two of the most popular gold ETFs, the iShares Gold Trust and SPDR Gold Trust. As you can see, these ETF tend to move in sync with gold prices.
As was the case in 2021, gold’s relation with inflation Is mixed. In 2025, the trend will likely continue as inflationary pressures and tariff wars continue to boost the precious metal. In addition, geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war could continue providing safe haven tailwinds. Furthermore, Fed interest rate decisions in Starting will have a substantial impact on gold’s upward potential.
Gold prices move every day. When prices are at record highs, 24-carat gold often trades above ₹11,000 per gram, while 22-carat stays slightly lower. The exact rate depends on your city and the day’s market trend.
Gold usually rises when interest rates fall or the US dollar weakens. It can drop when the economy strengthens and bond yields climb. Prices change quickly, so short-term moves are unpredictable.
The gold rate is the market price for gold per gram or per 10 grams. It changes through the day with demand, global prices, and currency movements. Local taxes and making charges can also affect the final price.
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This post was last modified on Sep 30, 2025, 15:04 BST 15:04