- Summary:
- Gold price has been on an uptrend since 2018. However, its performance in 2025 has been breathtaking. Check our gold price forecast now.
Gold price (XAU/USD) has had a strong upward momentum since mid-December 2024, and has recently gone on to hit all-time high price of $2,954 per ounce on February 20, 2025 at the spot market. The yellow metal’s propulsion this year has mostly been a result of the safe haven demand created by concerns over the impact of a trade tariff war and pitting the United States against China, Mexico, and Canada.
However, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and cooling geopolitical temperatures in the Middle East, as well as US-Russia negotiations, have put a lid on the upside of gold prices.
That said, gold prices were down by 0.45 percent on the daily chart as of this writing to trade at $2,925 per ounce in the spot market. US President Donald Trump’s statement expressing willingness to negotiate with China has cooled the tariff sentiment, limiting gold’s safe haven attractiveness.
This article was originally written in December 2024 and is regularly updated to reflect the latest gold market trends and price action
XAU/USD gets tailwinds from weak dollar fundamentals
The US dollar eased down in February as mixed macroeconomic data weighed in. Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data showed that 143,000 jobs were created in January, substantially lower than the forecast figure of 169,000.
In the wake of these figures, combined with concerns over tariff wars have the dollar has weakened against major world currencies. The DXY index, which weighs the greenback against a composite of six other currencies, slid to year-to-date lows of 106.83, near two-month lows as of this writing.
High Treasury Yields Limit Gold Price Upside
US Treasuries are substitutes for gold as far as safe-haven investments go, and high rates on these assets have limited gains by gold price. As of this writing, yields on the benchmark 10-year bonds were at 4.531%, strengthening the dollar against non-yielding gold. This will likely put a lid on the XAUUSD trading pair in the near term.
Gold News Update: Gold Hits New Highs as Tariff Risks and Dollar Weakness Fuel Flight to Safety
Gold just made history. Hitting a record high of $3,500 in April 2025, setting a fresh all-time high and turning heads across global markets. The move wasn’t random, as safe-haven demand roared back into focus.
One major driver? The US dollar has started to slip. Since Trump’s second term began, tariff talk has picked up again. His new trade policies are already fanning inflation fears. Investors are hedging early, and gold is back in the spotlight.
The Fed, for now, is holding steady. Markets were expecting at least two rate cuts in 2025. But sticky inflation and a politically charged environment are making things complicated. That’s bullish for gold.
Meanwhile, China isn’t sitting out. Its central bank has bought more than 200,000 ounces of gold in the past two months alone. That follows an 18-month buying spree that paused briefly last October. Now, they’re back—and buying aggressively.
Economic data in the US is mixed. Job numbers are holding up, but manufacturing is shaky. That tug-of-war has traders rotating into hard assets. And gold, once again, is acting like the anchor.
With gold prices trading at record levels, all eyes are now on the $3,500 zone. It’s the next line in the sand. And if the dollar continues to falter, gold might just get there faster than expected.
XAU/USD and Its Correlation With The DXY Index
The dollar strength index tracks the strength of the USD against a basket of major global currencies. This index has recently hit YTD lows of 106.83 and could go lower. In the event the DXY index drops below 100 points, it is very hard to see gold below $2,700.
Gold Price Historical Chart
In August 2020, gold price rallied to an all-time high of $2,072.85, surpassing the previous record high of $1,924.77 it hit nine years before. With the subsequent decline, the psychologically crucial zone of $2,000 has remained evasive. However, it has remained above $1,600 since rising above it at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in April 2020.
Gold price crashed to $1,616 on September 28, 2022. This price was about 21.88% from its highest point in 2022. This crash coincided with a period when the Federal Reserve was hiking interest rates aggressively in a bid to fight soaring inflation. It then started rising after signs emerged that inflation was starting to ease in the US.
Gold Price Prediction 2025
Bullion has performed really well since 2024 and is likely to stay on the ascending trajectory in 2025. The precious metal is up by 8.8% percent YTD, and at +7.8 percent in the last month . This has created a strong bullish undercurrent that could drive more gains through the first quarter of the year, especially in light of a high tariff ecosystem.
On the chart below, note the strong upside momentums above the $2,715 level above the recent double-top pattern. Action above that level defied the bearish connotation associated with the pattern, and could result in further gains to test the psychological barrier at $3,000. IThe medium-term support is likely to be at $2,560. Breaking below that level could open the pathway to test a lower support at $2,290.
Gold Update 6/5/2025
Gold Price Outlook: Is the $3,500 Breakout Coming Sooner Than Expected?
Gold prices are back on the offensive, climbing above $3,350 in Monday’s session as bullish momentum regains traction. The metal is now trading well above the midpoint of last month’s correction, reclaiming the 50% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the April all-time high to last week’s swing low.
With momentum building and daily oscillators turning positive, the path forward now tilts in favor of the bulls. A clean break above $3,385, the 61.8% Fib level, would likely trigger a retest of the $3,400 handle. Above that, the next major ceiling stands near $3,425. That zone could cap the next leg higher, but a firm move through would set the stage for another shot at the $3,500 psychological barrier.
Support, for now, sits at $3,350 — the same level that capped price action earlier this month. If that fails, downside pressure could return toward $3,325, followed by $3,300. A decisive break below that would shift focus to the $3,270–$3,245 demand area. That zone marks the lower boundary of the recent range and may be the line that bulls need to hold to preserve short-term control.
As long as XAU/USD remains above $3,325, the broader trend stays constructive. But a close below $3,300 would warn that momentum is fading — and open the door for a deeper pullback toward $3,200.
Gold Price Near-Term Forecast & Latest Analysis
As the price now seems to have gained strength above $2,800, the pivot point will likely be at $2,849, while the immediate resistance could come at $2,873. Therefore, a break above that mark could strengthen bullishness. Furthermore, the commodity find initial support around $2,824. A break below that mark could signal bearishness. Safe haven buying is likely to be the biggest contributor to the bullish outlook, but better-than-expected US economic data could limit the upside for gold.
I’ll keep posting my updated outlook on Gold and other assets in my free Telegram group, which you’re welcome to join.
Gold Price Forecast 2030
A feasible gold price forecast 2030 is founded on US dollar movements due to the existing inverse correlation. In the event of geopolitical tensions, gold may find some support in its status as a safe haven. However, its upward momentum may be limited by a rise in the demand for the greenback.
Over the past eight years, gold price has risen by about 60%. However, an assumption that the bull market will continue over the next eight years makes a surge of 50% viable. In that case, the gold price forecast for 2030 will be for the precious metal to hit a high of about $2,700 an ounce.
How to invest in gold
One of the viable ways to invest in gold is by buying bullion. It may be in coins or bars, certified with purity and weight have. Then, one can purchase or sell the physical gold to a reputable dealer. However, security reasons often lead some investors to embrace the route of futures and options.
Best gold stocks to invest in
One of the best ways to invest in gold is through stocks. In the past few years, mergers and acquisitions in the sector has led to a significant consolidation in the sector. Today, only a few large companies dominate the industry.
Barrick Gold, a company valued at $30 billion, is one of the best gold stocks to invest in. Its stock has risen by 21% in the last year and is up by dropped by about 8.1% year-to-date. The other excellent stock to buy is Wheaton Precious Metals, which is worth over $28 billion. Unlike other gold companies, Wheaton does not do the real mining. Instead, the company has purchased rights for key gold assets.
The other best gold stocks to invest in are Newmont Corporation, and Agnico Eagle mine. The chart below shows the performance of some of the biggest gold stocks in the industry.
Gold Futures
Futures are contracts in which one agrees to buy or sell the financial asset at the agreed-upon price before the expiry of the contract. For options, the investor has a chance and not an obligation to buy or sell the underlying instrument for as long as the contract is valid. To invest in gold via futures and options, one needs an account with a reputable financial broker. It is possible to trade in gold for a commission through the brokerage account.
Gold ETFs
ETFs and mutual funds are yet another viable way to invest in gold. A share of this financial instrument represents a specific amount of gold. One needs a brokerage account to trade in gold ETFs or mutual funds, like in futures and options.
In addition to the aforementioned ways of investing in gold, an investor can consider buying stocks of gold mining companies like Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD) or Newmont Corp. (NEM). While the share price is usually correlated to gold price, the firm’s fundamentals are also influential.
The chart below shows two of the most popular gold ETFs, the iShares Gold Trust and SPDR Gold Trust. As you can see, these ETF tend to move in sync with gold prices.
Summary
As was the case in 2021, gold’s relation with inflation Is mixed. In 2025, the trend will likely continue as inflationary pressures and tariff wars continue to boost the precious metal. In addition, geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war could continue providing safe haven tailwinds. Furthermore, Fed interest rate decisions in Starting will have a substantial impact on gold’s upward potential.