Unlike AUDUSD and NZDUSD, trading on gold price has been subdued thus far in today’s Asian session. In fact, trading on the precious metal has been limited since July 8 since it hit its highest level since 2011 at $1,817.77 on July 8. As of this writing, XAUUSD is trading at $1,808.61, down from its opening price of $1,809.81.
Due at 1:30 pm GMT, both the headline and core retail sales figures for June are eyed to print at 5.0%. Higher-than-expected readings could strengthen the USD and therefore be bearish for gold price. Meanwhile, disappointing readings could drive XAUUSD higher.
On the 4-hour time frame, it can be seen that despite its recent consolidation, the uptrend on XAUUSD remains intact. This is evidenced by the fact that gold price continues to trade above its rising trendline (from connecting the lows of June 15, June 17, June 18, July 2, July 7, and July 14). This suggests that there may still be enough buyers in the market to sustain the momentum on XAUUSD. A strong bullish close above its July 8 highs at $1,817.77 could soon mean that gold price may trade to its September 2011 highs at $1,920.60.
On the other hand, a strong close below yesterday’s low at $1,802.34 could mean that the uptrend on gold price will have already been invalidated. XAUUSD may then fall to $1,784.05 where it could test support at the 100 SMA as well as its July 1 highs.