- USD/PLN is up by over 1.3%, barely three weeks after the year began, wiping out a large portion of the zloty's gains of late 2025
- While Poland is not mentioned directly by President Trump for US tariff action, its EU membership means it could be affected
- This year will see Poland receive the final inflows from the post-pandemic Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) funds, which could boost the Polish economy by 2.5%
The USD/PLN forex pair has been heading up since the beginning of the year, gaining over 1.3%. It jumped from around 3.59 to about 3.65 in that time. The Polish zloty was strong all through 2025, and this sudden dollar strength has surprised some people. But in forex, things don’t happen for no reason. But in the world of forex, momentum rarely happens in a vacuum. So what’s happening?
Why is USD/PLN Uptrend Resilient?
The dollar’s rise against the zloty is tied to the dollar’s overall strength in early 2026. A big reason is the U.S. economy, which grew over 4% in late 2025, better than many other countries. Poland’s economy is in good shape, and the National Bank of Poland (NBP) forecast a GDP growth of 4% in 2026.
Still, the zloty is facing some risk-off feelings. Investors get nervous, and when global worries increase, the Zloty, as an emerging market currency, often takes a hit. The Federal Reserve is taking a slow approach to cutting rates, which has helped the dollar. Even though cuts are expected in 2026, the Fed’s policy has kept interest rates higher, favoring the dollar.
USD/PLN 2026 Outlook
What happens the rest of the year will depend on the NBP’s interest rate decisions and the last year of EU fund payments. Poland has until the end of 2026 to use its post-pandemic Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) funds.
Furthermore, the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate cuts has supported the greenback. While markets anticipate easing in 2026, the Fed’s policy has maintained interest rate differentials that favor the dollar. UBS anticipates quarterly levels at 3.50-3.53, reflecting Poland’s firming economy as the National Bank of Poland concludes its easing cycle.
The Greenland Factor
Right now, the most unpredictable factor is the diplomatic issues over Greenland. The U.S. government is pushing to buy the territory, citing security and mineral reasons, which has worried European countries. While Poland isn’t directly involved, as an EU member, it could be affected. News sources say European leaders are calling the move unacceptable, and the EU is planning tariffs up to €93 billion.
ING Bank says that the RRF funds coming in (about 2.5% of GDP) could really boost the Zloty by mid-year. Until that money arrives, the USD/PLN pair will react to the Greenland headlines. If there’s a diplomatic solution, the dollar could lose some of its gains. If not, the Zloty may have a tough time.
USD/PLN Forecast Today
The USD/PLN is trading in a short-term upward channel. On the daily chart, the RSI is at 64.11, suggesting there’s still room to rise before it’s overbought. The pivot is at 3.63 and the upward movement will likely continue if the pair manages to stay above that level. Primary resistance is at the year-to-date highs of 3.65, beyond which the buyers are likely to target 3.66. On the downside, support is at 3.62, aligning with the 20-day SMA, and a stronger floor at 3.60.
USD/PLN forex pair on a daily chart on January 19, 2026, with key support and resistance levels created on TradingView
The increase is due to high U.S. Treasury yields and a move into the dollar as a safe investment. While Poland’s economy is solid, geopolitical tensions in Europe have made investors prefer the dollar’s stability.
Even though Poland isn’t directly targeted, EU trade issues could weaken the Zloty because of slower growth. If it’s solved diplomatically, the pair could stabilise.
The main risk is a de-escalation in trade tensions or a shift by the Federal Reserve to cut rates faster. If U.S. yields decrease, the dollar’s advantage would get smaller.