- USD/TRY trades near record highs 42.93.Turkish lira stays under pressure late December, traders watching policy signals and the 2026 outlook.
USD/TRY remains near record highs in late December, trading around 42.93 in early Monday sessions, as persistent pressure on the Turkish lira continues into the final trading days of the year. The pair has edged higher but remains largely range-bound, suggesting markets have already priced in near-term policy expectations.
The Turkish lira has spent most of December under steady pressure rather than experiencing a single disorderly selloff, with price action reflecting broader structural challenges rather than short-term shocks.
Turkish Lira Performance in December 2025
Throughout December, USD/TRY advanced in a series of measured moves, repeatedly holding above prior resistance levels. Early-month gains set the tone, followed by continued upside through mid-December as investors adjusted positioning in response to monetary policy signals.
In recent sessions, the pace of gains has slowed, according to Bloomberg with the pair consolidating near its highs. This behaviour points to reduced volatility and a market that has already absorbed much of the near-term risk surrounding the lira.
Why USD/TRY Has Stabilised Near Record Levels
From my perspective, the lira’s current phase of weakness is unfolding in a more controlled manner than in past episodes. Interest rate expectations have shifted gradually, allowing markets to adapt without triggering panic-driven flows.
Liquidity management tools and regulatory oversight have also helped contain sharp intraday swings, contributing to a steadier climb in USD/TRY rather than abrupt spikes. As a result, the currency’s decline has reflected longer-term policy dynamics rather than sudden capital outflows.
Why Turkish Monetary Policy Is Pressuring the Lira
Market focus remains on Turkey’s monetary policy outlook heading into 2026. Investors broadly expect policymakers to maintain a growth-oriented stance, limiting the appeal of the lira amid elevated inflation and weak real yields.
Until there is a clear signal of a shift in policy direction, demand for the currency is likely to remain subdued, leaving USD/TRY sensitive to broader dollar trends and global risk sentiment.
USD/TRY Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, USD/TRY remains entrenched in a long-term uptrend. While momentum indicators suggest some cooling toward the end of December, there are no clear signs of a trend reversal.
Instead, the pair appears to be consolidating around the 42.90–43.00 area, a pattern often seen before markets reassess direction at the start of a new year. Traders are watching whether support holds on shallow pullbacks.
USD/TRY Outlook for Early 2026
Looking ahead, attention will turn to January inflation data, central bank guidance, and shifts in global interest rate expectations. External factors such as US dollar strength and emerging market sentiment will also play a key role in shaping USD/TRY dynamics.
For now, USD/TRY holding near record highs underscores a market that has grown accustomed to prolonged lira weakness, with stability rather than recovery remaining the dominant theme as 2026 approaches.
USD/TRY is mainly driven by Turkey’s interest rate policy, inflation trends, central bank guidance, and global US dollar strength.
Yes. USD/TRY is trading near record highs in late December 2025, reflecting sustained lira weakness rather than a short-term market shock.
USD/TRY is rising because the Turkish lira remains under pressure from loose monetary policy, high inflation, and weak real yields, while the US dollar stays firm.