- USD/THB remains under pressure as the Thai baht extends its recovery
- Softer US Dollar sentiment continues to weigh on the pair
- Stable Thai economic conditions and cautious central bank policy support the baht
USD/THB was under pressure during Asian trading hours, trading near the 31.40–31.50 zone as the Thai baht continues to outperform the US Dollar. The pair has struggled to regain upside traction, with recent rebounds proving shallow amid a broader downtrend that has been in place since late 2025.
Price action reflects a combination of fading US Dollar momentum and relatively steady conditions in Thailand. With no major domestic shocks and volatility remaining contained, the baht has benefited from reduced downside risk and stable regional sentiment.
Thai Baht Holds Firm as Policy Outlook Remains Steady
The Thai baht has found support from a cautiously optimistic domestic backdrop. Policymakers at the Bank of Thailand have reiterated a measured approach to monetary policy, signalling limited urgency to adjust rates unless growth or inflation dynamics shift materially.
Thailand’s economy continues to benefit from tourism recovery and resilient domestic demand, helping anchor currency sentiment. While growth remains moderate, the absence of fresh downside surprises has allowed the baht to strengthen gradually against the US Dollar.
This steady backdrop contrasts with lingering uncertainty surrounding US fiscal and monetary dynamics, keeping USD/THB biased lower.
US Dollar Struggles as Policy Uncertainty Lingers
The US Dollar has remained on the defensive as markets reassess interest rate expectations and broader policy credibility. Recent US inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold in the near term, limiting upside momentum for the Greenback.
According to Reuters, global policymakers and financial leaders have continued to stress the importance of central bank independence amid heightened political scrutiny, contributing to cautious dollar positioning rather than aggressive buying.
As a result, emerging market currencies such as the Thai baht have found room to stabilise and outperform on a relative basis.
USD/THB Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, the daily chart maintains a bearish structure:
- Price remains below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages
- Bollinger Bands show continued downside pressure, with price tracking the lower half of the range
- MACD remains in negative territory, though momentum appears to be flattening
Key levels to watch:
- Support: 31.30, followed by 31.00
- Resistance: 31.70, then 32.00
A sustained break below 31.30 would expose further downside toward the psychological 31.00 level. Conversely, a move back above 31.70 would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and signal a short-term stabilisation phase.
USD/THB Outlook
In the near term, USD/THB is likely to remain pressured as long as US Dollar momentum stays soft and Thai fundamentals remain stable. While brief consolidations are possible, the broader bias continues to favour the downside unless a clear shift in US data or risk sentiment emerges.
Writer’s Trade Idea My preferred strategy remains selling rallies toward 31.70, targeting a move toward 31.00, while placing a stop-loss above 32.10.
USD/THB is under pressure due to a softer US Dollar and steady support for the Thai baht from stable economic conditions and cautious central bank policy.
The baht may continue to see gradual gains if domestic stability persists, though sharp moves are unlikely without a major catalyst.
Key support lies at 31.30 and 31.00, while resistance is located near 31.70 and 32.00.