The USD/CZK pair is currently trading at 20.9275 as of 15 January 2026. This benchmark price, as of mid-January trading, serves as an essential benchmark for USD/CZK forecasts for 2026. This is because the prevailing sentiment from banks and the institutional sell-side is for a softer US Dollar and a moderately stable Czech Koruna (CZK). This bias will manifest as bearishness in the USD/CZK pair throughout 2026.
USD/CZK Live Chart
The USD/CZK monthly chart above indicates that the USD/CZK pair has been in a long-term consolidation, with 26.1106 and 20.3642 serving as the ceiling and floor of price action since 2015. If the USD/CZK forecasts are to play out, the bears would have to take out the recently tested lower boundary of the range.
USD/CZK Forecast 2026: Fundamental Drivers
What are the fundamental drivers behind the EUR/SEK forecasts?
- Fed easing policy
- CNB policy stance
- Domestic wage dynamics and inflation
- Risk-on/Risk-off sentiment
- Fed Easing Policy
The expected Fed easing of 2026 will directly impact the USD/CZK pair. This pair is also seen as a mirror of Central European Economy (CEE) sentiment. The surprise here will be if the Fed rate cut expectations are repriced higher, leading to a USD/CZK bounce.
2. Czech National Bank (CNB) Policy Stance
The CNB kept policy rates at 3.5% at its last meeting and guided that rates would remain unchanged for some time to come. With this bias priced in, the surprise would only play out as predominant disinflation, which could force the CNB to consider a rate cut in 2026.
3. Inflation and Domestic Wage Dynamics
According to the CNB’s Autumn 2025 forecast, domestic inflation is projected at 2.2% in 2026, with three-month PRIBOR at 3.5%. These are levels that do not require aggressive easing, which keeps the CZK supported versus the USD and other currencies whose central banks are more dovish in 2026.
4. Risk-on/Risk-off Sentiment
Risk sentiment is a CEE-beta event, with CZK serving as a proxy for CEE currencies. Risk-on mode in Europe is supportive of the CZK, which is bearish for USD/CZK. Risk-off sentiment drives a flight to safety, making the US Dollar a potential reserve currency in such instances.
USD/CZK Forecast 2026: Institutional Targets
ING’s forecast is not a direct one. It is direct as a price forecast from the EUR/USD and EUR/CZK crosses. The implied USD/CZK value for Q1 2026 is 20.48, while the Q2, Q3, and Q4 numbers stand at 20.12, 19.92, and 19.72, respectively. ING’s USD/CZK forecast for 2026 is therefore bearish, with the pair drifting lower throughout the year as a softer USD sifts through.
Base case: the USD/CZK forecast for 2026 is for a stable CZK and a weaker USD, allowing the pair to inch lower. The base case is based on a CNB keeping rates stable while the Fed eases, with the pair drifting slightly below the 20.00 price mark.
CZK bull case: The bull case scenario for the Koruna, which is also the USD/CZK bear case, is based on improving risk appetite and growth within the Eurozone. If this leads to a stronger EUR/USD, USD/CZK will experience a sharper drop than in the base case.
CZK bear case: The CZK bear case is a scenario in which the Fed scales back its rate-cut plans amid a rise in US bond yields. Also, any risk-off shocks are likely to hit the CEE currencies hard, while raising demand for safe-haven assets such as the USD. This scenario will see the USD/CZK returning above the 21.00 mark, or at least testing the 20.9 area.
USD/CZK Technical Outlook:
The decline in the USD/CZK in recent months has now found a consolidation base between the 21.1584 resistance (January 2022, May/July 2023 lows) and the 20.3642 support (April 2018 low). The 20.3642 price pivot must give way, favouring a decline that targets the 18.6094 support and the prior low of November 2013, with an intervening support at 19.5595 (March 2014 low) as an initial bearish touch point.
On the flip side, the barrier at 21.15845 needs to be uncapped for a further push north, targeting 22.22986 (the January 2019 and December 2023 lows) as the initial upside target. The 1 August 2025 high at 21.60000 is the initial pitstop for this move.
FAQ
What is the CZK?
This is the Czech Koruna, the currency of the Republic of Czechia. It is the flagship currency of the CEE region.
What is the USD/CZK forecast for 2026?
The institutional forecasts is for the pair to gradually drift lower, as the effects of Fed easing leads to a gradual weakening of the USD (and not sharp CZK strength).
What is the price of USD/CZK today?
The price of the USD/CZK is 20.2093, down by just 0.02% as of writing.