- Interest rate differentials between the RBI and BoE have the greatest influence on GBP/INR currently
- The 124.00 mark has emerged as a key psychological level for the forex pair in February and a break above it could signal a bullish rally
- Interventions by the RBI have helped cushion the rupee against steeper declines
The GBP/INR pair had a good start to 2026, gaining about 1.8% and reaching nearly 124.30 in early February. since then, it hasn’t been able to stay above the 124.00 level. After some losses, it’s now trading around 123.60–123.70. Traders are questioning if the pound has lost its momentum and what it means for the GBPINR pair.
The Struggle at 124.00
The GBP/INR stall comes from both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) being cautious about their next steps. The BoE is watching inflation, while the RBI has been surprisingly strong. At its February meeting, the RBI kept its focus on controlling market swings, which stopped the rupee from falling too much, given global pressures.
Also, the market is looking at which economies are growing faster. The UK economy is showing signs of improvement, but India has strong domestic demand, and investment is up. The drop from 125.47 in early February to 123.30 seems like investors cashing out because they think 124.00 is a fair value right now.
Can GBPUSD Rebound?
It seems unlikely to go back above 124 soon. It will probably stay at the same level unless the UK economy does better than expected or the global market improves. To go above 124, the pound needs to show greater strength, like higher UK inflation or a weaker US dollar.
Traders should monitor several important signals in the coming weeks. BoE policy minutes, UK inflation and employment data, RBI intervention activity, and movements in oil prices, which heavily influence the rupee, will be critical.
GBP/INR Forecast
The GBP/INR RSI is around 49.78, which suggests neutral-to-bearish conditions. The pivot is at 123.00, which is both a psychological level and a weekly low. The main resistance is at 123.88, and a break past that could enable the pair to target 124.30 next. If it goes down, there’s support at 122.45, and a major level at 122.00.
GBP/INR on the daily time frame on February 17, 2026 with key levels of support and resistance. Created on TradingView
The difference in interest rates between the BoE and RBI is getting smaller. As people expect the BoE to cut rates later in 2026, the benefit of holding the Pound goes down, making levels above 124.00 less appealing.
It’s a bit of both. The rupee is benefiting from foreign investment in Indian stocks, and the pound is correcting after its sharp 1.8% increase in January.
Important things to watch include the BoE minutes, UK inflation and jobs data, RBI intervention levels, and oil price changes. These will give the clearest idea of what will happen soon.