- This is a peek into the November 6, 2025 BoE decision live, which also covers the MPC vote split.
BoE Decision Live: Trade Approach
The Bank of England will release its interest rate decision. It is also expected to announce the voting pattern of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), and the BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will make a statement.
Most economists predict a BoE dovish hold, which means that interest rates are expected to remain steady at 4.00% (no change) with an MPC vote split that will see one more member shifting vote “pause” to “cut” (0-2-7 prior; 0-3-6 consensus).
The BoE decision on rate adjustments is usually based on inflation expectations. Here is what the expectations for today’s decision are, according to a poll of several institutions.
GBPUSD Reaction: BoE decision
The primary currency pair to trade is the GBP/USD. Here is what the street is saying now.
- Goldman Sachs responded to the recent softer than expected CPI and labour market data by making a call for a 25 bps rate cut.
- Evercore ISI expects a BoE dovish hold, but thinks the vote would be more dovish than expected (0-4-5).
- Nomura is also towing the line of Goldman Sachs, and expects a 25 bps rate cut.
The current rate of 4.00% came into effect in August. Inflation in the UK has since cooled, but remains above the bank’s 2.00% target.
GBPUSD Trade Setups Based on Outcome
A) A BoE dovish hold (rates stay at 4.00% but vote changes from 0-2-7 to 0-3-6 or 0-4-5) will e bearish for the Pound. If the BoE’s statement highlights emerging downside growth risks, we could see a knee jerk reaction with the Pound falling.
B) A 25 bp BoE rate cut to 3.75% is a minority expectation, but this is a view held by Goldman Sachs and Nomura. This will be outrightly dovish as this has not been fully priced into the market reaction. Another FX trade call would be to sell the EURGBP if there is some sort of guidance that indicates the potential for another rate cut in Q1 2026.
If there is hawkish guidance following the rate cut (i.e. the BoE statement points to “one-more-and-it-is-done”), fade the second-day follow-through.
C) A BoE hawkish hold (rate stays at 4.00% and MPC vote of 0-2-7, with stronger language on curbing services inflation) could deliver a pop in the GBP. It will be prudent to buy GBPUSD on the dips and sell the EURGBP as it approaches resistance.
BoE Decision Live: Beyond the Headlines
Update: the BoE decision live indicates that the MPC has delivered a 0-4-5 vote, while keeping the interest rate unchanged at 4.00%.
Keep an eye on the following to monitor the performance of the GBP beyond the initial price responses to the headlines.
- Tone of BoE Gov Bailey at the press conference. Look out for the use of phrases such as “data dependent”, “leaning towards easing”, which would be a signal for GBP dovishness. However, language such as “inflation still sticky” could support near-term GBP strength.
- MPC vote split pattern: if the pro-cut voting bloc rises above 4, this is clearly a dovish signal that could extend for several days or weeks. Maintenance of the prior pattern at 0-2-7 is a hawkish signal.
- Any forward guidance to the CPI by the MPC provides room for a clearer path down the road, well beyond today’s meeting.
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