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EURUSD Trades Lower on Mixed Euro Zone Reports, Positive US Data


EURUSD fell victim to the dollar’s strength last Friday as data from the US met expectations. The currency pair opened at 1.1120 and struggled to find support throughout the Asian session. It then steadily traded lower and by the New York session close, the currency pair had settled at 1.1072.

Positive US Data

The US’ personal income report showed that consumers experienced a 0.5% growth in income in November. This reading was higher than the 0.3% market consensus. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index and personal spending report came in as expected. They printed at 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively.

Mixed Data from Europe

Data released from the euro zone on Friday came in mixed. The German GfK Climate report for December printed lower than what market participants had anticipated at 9.6 versus the 9.8 forecast. The French consumer spending report for November also failed to meet forecasts when it came in at 0.1%. It was estimated to print at 0.2%. On the other hand, the euro zone-wide current account report showed a 32.4 billion EUR account surplus which was higher than the 23.6 billion EUR forecast.

Core Durable Goods and New Home Sales Scheduled Today

For today, there are a few reports due from the US which may affect EURUSD. At 1:30 pm GMT, the durable goods report for November is eyed at 0.2%. Meanwhile, the core reading is anticipated at 1.5%. Then at 3:00 pm GMT, new home sales for November is expected to have rising by 730,000 from a year ago.

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EURUSD Outlook

On the 4-hour time frame, EURUSD looks like it is stuck between support at the 200 SMA and resistance at the 100 SMA. Any upward movement on the currency pair will also probably be limited by the Fibonacci retracement levels (when you draw the Fibonacci retracement tool from the high of December 20 to its intraday low). Reversal candles around 1.1090 could mean that EURUSD may soon test support at the 200 SMA and last Friday’s lows at 1.1065. If support at this level does not hold, we could see the currency pair tumble to its November lows around 1.1000.

On the other hand, a strong bullish close above 1.1100 (where the 61.8% Fib level is) may mean that EURUSD could soon re-test its December 13 highs at 1.1180.