The EURUSD could make a decisive move today that could seal its fate for the rest of the month. On a slide below the August low of 1.1692, the price could target the psychological level of 1.15, followed by 1.14. I don’t think the primary motivator for a softer EURUSD is the selling of Euros. Instead, it is traders and investors buying dollars, the latter looks to have turned around and is trending higher vs British Pound, Canadian Dollar, gold, and silver.
Jerome Powell is due to speak several times this week, but I don’t think he will offer anything new, that he could not have shared at last week’s rate meeting. If anything, he will tell Congress that the government should shoulder the burden to help the economy, a clear sign that the Fed money printing might have reached its end for now.
Today, the Fed’s course is set, and they plan to keep interest rates low until the end of 2023. They are also reluctant to change the composition or amount of their QE purchases, means that the Fed will probably make a few changes until the end of the year. On the other hand, the ECB is getting questioned and pressured over the current state of Euro area deflation and why they are not targeting the exchange rate to help the situation.
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EURUSD Six-hour chart
The EURUSD remains bullish for now and might be able to reach its 2020 high. However, a break to the August low, could trigger a breakout from this range, and send the price to 1.15, and 1.14.
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