The EURUSD was higher yesterday as the pair tried to recover some ground from a recent sell-off. The price is flat today as we move into a packed economic calendar for the pair in the second half of the week.
Today kicks off the data releases with finalized GDP figures for the U.S. economy in the second quarter, which is expected to show a drop of -31.7% q-on-q. We also get ADP employment numbers, which will guide the market an update on the jobs picture ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls figures on Friday. Economists expect a gain of 650k from the ADP release. ECB head Christine Lagarde is due to talk today but the market is unlikely to hear anything different from Monday’s testimony.
Tomorrow will be important for the EURUSD as the U.S. sess Core PCE inflation data released and this will help to clarify the path towards the FED’s 2% inflation target. Traders will also get an update on ISM Manufacturing PMIs which are expected to come in at an expansive 56.3.
The U.S. saw its first Presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump but there were no real game-changing developments in what was a bad tempered and noisy debate. Both sides were unlikely to have seen a swing in their current voting base and the market’s attention will switch back to the economic outlook..
EURUSD Technical Outlook
EURUSD broke lower from a four-month uptrend around September 21st and the pair fell to test prices near the 1.600 level. A two-day bounce has the Euro above previous support at 1.17200 and the data this week will define the next trend. A close back near 1.1600 will warn of further losses, while a close above the 50-day moving average at 1.1800 will allow further gains. The ATFX Q4 Market Outlook is now available for download. Please find it here.
EURUSD Daily Chart