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EURUSD outlook ahead of the USD nonfarm payrolls data


The EURUSD pair is up slightly ahead of the nonfarm payroll numbers. The pair is trading at 1.1265, up by 0.12% at 06:00 GMT. It is higher than the yesterday’s low of 1.1185 and the high of 1.1275.

US nonfarm payrolls ahead

There will be no major economic data from the eurozone today. The only number worth noting will be the May PPI data, which measures the changes in prices at factory gate. Analysts expect that the PPI declined by 0.5% in May and by 4.8% on a year on year basis.

Another data worth mentioning is the eurozone’s unemployment rate, which analysts expect climbed to 7.7%. These numbers will likely not move the EURUSD pair since they are from May, which is now “outdated”.

Therefore, the next data to watch will be the US nonfarm payrolls numbers. Analysts expect that the economy created more than 3 million jobs in June as the economy continued to reopen. They also expect that the unemployment rate dropped to 12.5%. As we wrote on Friday, the report will come today because tomorrow is a public holiday.

If the numbers come as expected, it will be the second month of straight gains since the country lost more than 20 million jobs in April. It will also mean that more than 15 million Americans are still out of the job market.

We will also receive the initial jobless claims numbers today. Analysts see the claims rising by more than 1.35 million after rising by more than 1.48 million in the previous week. They see the continuing claims falling to 19 million.

In addition, we will receive the volume of trade from the United States. Analysts expect that exports and imports made a modest recovery during the month. Later on, the EURUSD pair will react to the factory orders, and New York business confidence data.

However, the elephant in the room is that the number of coronavirus cases in the US is rising. Yesterday, the number rose by more than 52,000, the highest number ever recorded. As a result, many states have started to roll back their reopening plans, which could affect employment in July.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD pair is trading at 1.1267, which is above the June low of 1.1170. On the daily chart, this price is above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages. The price is also slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Also, the pair is nearing the tip of the triangle pattern that has been forming recently. Therefore, the price is likely to break out higher considering this triangle is a bullish pennant pattern.

However, a move below 1.1170 will invalidate this prediction. This price is along the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and also along the lowest level in June.

EURUSD forecast