EUR/USD

EUR/USD Forecast: What Next for the EUR to USD Today?

The EUR/USD pair is little changed today as traders continue reacting to the weak nonfarm payroll numbers released by the United States on Friday. The overall weaker US dollar is weighing-in on the EURUSD pair, which is trading closer to the highest level on April 2018.

In a disappointing report on Friday, the Bureau of Labour Statistics said that the US added just 245,000 jobs in November. That was the lowest monthly increase since May this year and was lower than the previous month’s increase of 610,000. In addition, the number was lower than the median estimate of more than 469,000.

The participation rate dropped to 61.5% while the overall unemployment rate fell to 6.7% from 6.9%. Private nonfarm payrolls also rose by 344k, lower than the previous 877k. At the same time, the US exports increased to $182 billion while imports rose to $245 billion.

The price action in the EUR/USD today is also because of the important trade numbers from China. In a report released earlier today, the Chinese statistics office said that the overall exports increased by 21.1% in November, a better performance than the previous 11.4%.

At the same time, the imports increased by 4.5% leading to a record trade surplus of more than $75 billion. As such, these numbers have boosted the ongoing risk-on sentiment in the market.

EUR/USD technical outlook

Turning to the 45-minute chart, we see that the EUR/USD pair is little changed at the current level of 1.2132. It is slightly above the Friday’s low of 1.2110. It is also below last week’s double-top of 1.2175. The price has also moved slightly below the 25-period and 50-period weighted moving averages but is also slightly above the ascending yellow trendline.

Therefore, for today, I suspect that the price will remain at the current range considering that there are no major economic numbers. But because of the overall bearish pennant that is forming, the overall bias remains lower. On the flip side, a move above the psychological level of 1.2150 will invalidate the downside thesis.

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EUR/USD technical chart

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