EUR/USD Forecast: Implications of the ECB Interest Rate Decision

EUR/USD has eased on its rally as investors focus on the ECB interest rate decision scheduled for Thursday. While the central bank is likely to leave rates unchanged at 0.00%, the focus will be on its tone.

On the one hand, the stubbornly rising COVID-19 infections in most parts of the region have triggered stringent restrictive measures. Subsequently, the economy is lagging behind that of the US. However, fiscal stimulus and progress in its jab program have heightened optimism of a rebound.

EUR/USD will further react to the US initial jobless claims and existing home sales data. As for the unemployment claims, analysts expect a reading of 617,000, up from the previous 576,000. Besides, as for the existing home sales numbers, the forecasted 6.19 million for March is slightly lower than February’s 6.22 million.  

EURUSD Technical Outlook

EUR/USD has eased as investors focus on Thursday’s ECB interest rate decision. At the time of writing, the pair was up by 0.01% at 1.2036. On a four-hour chart, it is trading above the 25 and 50-day exponential moving averages. Besides, it has remained within the ascending channel.

In my opinion, ECB’s decision will push EUR/USD higher to 1.2100. It may then ease at around that level before surging further to hit its next target at 1.2250. On the flip side, a decline past its current support level at 1.2000 will have the bears targeting 1.1950 and 1.1900.

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