The EUR/SEK is hovering around 10.73 at the time of writing. This positioning is relevant, as the EUR/SEK forecasts from many banks and sell-side institutions point to a decline and an end-of-2026 lower level.
EUR/SEK Live Chart
EUR/SEK Forecast 2026: Fundamental Drivers
What are the fundamental drivers behind the EUR/SEK forecasts?
- Riksbank policy
- Risk-on/Risk-off sentiment
- Sweden’s growth outlook
- EU growth, ECB policy, and geopolitics
1. Riksbank Policy
The Riksbank has recently completed its easing cycle, following its last policy meeting in which it held interest rates steady at 1.75%. The minutes of the meeting indicate that the Swedish apex bank intends to keep rates at this level throughout 2026. This factor removes the impact of monetary policy and interest rate expectations from the price action of the Swedish Krona, the counter currency of EUR/SEK, leaving it more vulnerable to the other fundamental drivers mentioned below. Please note that if the Riksbank shifts from this stance due to unforeseen circumstances, this will be viewed as a market surprise capable of inducing additional volatility in the pair.
2. Risk-on/Risk-off Sentiment
The Krona remains a high-beta currency, subject to global risk sentiment. This factor is expected to assume greater importance in 2026 following the announced completion of the Riksbank’s easing cycle. Typically, the SEK gains strength during risk-on episodes.
3. Sweden’s Growth Outlook
According to Nordea, Sweden has growth prospects and a robust public finance portfolio. These two factors make a case for a weakening of the EUR/SEK into 2026, as the Krona gradually picks up strength.
4. EU-related Growth and Geopolitics
The Euro is the base currency of the EUR/SEK pair. Therefore, it makes sense to consider EU fundamentals as a driver of this pairing. EU-side fundamentals, such as geopolitics and growth data, influence the short-term price picture of the pair.
EUR/SEK Forecast 2026: Institutional Targets
We start the institutional EUR/SEK forecasts for 2026 with UBS, which maintains a quarterly-end pathway for its price targets. The Q1-Q4 price forecasts are 10.8 (Q1), 10.7 (end-Q2), 10.6 (end-Q3), and 10.5 (end-Q4). Bank of America (BofA) maintains a 10.50 target for end-2026, while Nordea’s end-2026 EUR/SEK forecast is set to 10.50.
The institutional price cluster for EUR/SEK by end-2026 is around 10.50.
Base-case scenario: EUR/SEK is expected to grind lower as SEK long positions accumulate. This move depends on the Riksbank maintaining the 1.75% interest rate throughout 2026, without any policy shifts or comments hinting at policy volatility. This base case scenario also accommodates the 10.50 end-2026 bank targets stated above.
Bull case: A bull case for the Krona sees a faster depreciation of the EUR/SEK, taking out the 10.50 price target in favour of lower targets. A strong risk-on liquidity state amid a strong European cycle will favour the Krona’s outperformance of the Euro.
Bear case: The Krona’s bear case scenario is set against a strong risk-off backdrop, with attendant equity declines and heightened geopolitical risks. This scenario will weigh on high-beta currencies such as the SEK, pushing the EUR/SEK higher.
Therefore, traders should watch the Riksbank’s communication and global risk sentiment as key drivers of price action in 2026.
EUR/SEK Technical Outlook
Following on from the Following the price retracement from the 8 November 2021 – 18 September 2023 upswing, the pair is now testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 10.6723. A breakdown of this pivot point to 10.2435 as the next downside target, the former low of 18 April 2022. An additional support at 9.8766 becomes visible if the former is degraded.
However, a short-term reprieve following a bounce on the current support will initially target 10.9182, before the 11.2682 barrier and the prior high of 7 July 2025. The 11.7737 resistance and prior highs of 29 April 2024 and 22 July 2024 become the following upside targets if the recovery uncaps the 11.2582 barrier.
FAQ
What is the current price of the EUR/SEK?
The current price of the EUR/SEK is 10.6956, as of 15 January 2026.
Which currency is called the SEK?
Swedish Krona, which in English, means the Swedish Crown.
What is the institutional cluster target for the EUR/SEK by end-2026?
The base case scenario by institutions is for the EUR/SEK to trade lower, targeting the 10.50 price mark in 2026.