Crude oil price has been on a bullish consolidation pattern since Monday. On Thursday, it is trading lower amid concerns over the return of Iranian oil in the market. On the one hand, talks on the Iran nuclear deal seem to have made significant progress. This is especially after Iran allowed IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) to continue monitoring its nuclear sites for an additional month. As a result, a deal may be attained before the Iranian presidential elections on 18th June.
The deal will have the US lift sanctions on the country’s crude oil exports. However, as indicated by an analyst on Bloomberg, the supply may not reach the market prior to the third quarter. According to Energy Aspects’ head of research Amrita Sen, it will take at least two months for the Iranian oil to get into the market under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA).
WTI Technical Outlook
Crude oil price has remained range-bound since the beginning of the week, between 66.37 and 65.37. At the time of writing, WTI futures were down by 0.69% at 65.69. On a four-hour chart, it is trading above the 25 and 50-day exponential moving averages. The horizontal channel’s lower border is along the 25-day EMA.
I expect crude oil price to remain within the horizontal channel in the near term. If the bulls manage to push the price past the upper border, the next target will be at 67. A move below 65, which is along the 50-day EMA, will invalidate this thesis.