Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Pulls Back Toward $4,600

Gold prices edged lower on Friday, with XAU/USD slipping back toward the $4,600 level, as stronger-than-expected US economic data and easing geopolitical tensions weighed on near-term bullish momentum. The pullback comes after gold surged to fresh all-time highs earlier in the week, underscoring how stretched positioning had become following an extended safe-haven rally.

According to Reuters, spot gold eased around 0.3% in late European trading, while US gold futures also edged lower. A firmer US dollar, supported by resilient labour-market data, reduced demand for dollar-denominated bullion and encouraged some profit-taking near record levels.

US Data Strengthens Dollar, Pressures Gold Prices

The latest US data showed initial jobless claims unexpectedly falling to 198,000, reinforcing the view that the US labour market remains resilient. This pushed the dollar index toward multi-week highs, creating headwinds for gold despite ongoing uncertainty around US monetary policy.

Market participants continue to price a cautious Federal Reserve outlook, but the absence of near-term rate-cut urgency has limited gold’s upside extension. As one analyst quoted by Reuters noted, recent US data has shifted the narrative from supportive tailwinds to short-term resistance for bullion.

Silver Prices Ease but Weekly Gains Remain Intact

Silver prices fell more sharply than gold, with spot silver sliding toward $90.50 per ounce after briefly trading above $93 earlier in the week. Despite Friday’s decline, silver remains up more than 13% on a weekly basis, highlighting continued speculative interest and tight market conditions.

According to Reuters, analysts caution that while silver has attracted aggressive buying, levels near $100 may prove difficult to sustain without renewed macro or industrial demand catalysts.

Gold Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

XAU/USD daily chart analysis highlights a still-constructive structure despite the pullback:

• Price remains above the rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages
• Bollinger Bands show mild contraction, signalling consolidation after a strong rally
• MACD remains positive, though momentum has slowed

Gold Key levels today

• Support: $4,550, then $4,400
• Resistance: $4,650, followed by $4,750

A sustained break below $4,550 would signal a deeper corrective phase, while renewed strength above $4,650 could reopen the path toward fresh highs.

Gold Price Outlook

In the near term, gold prices may continue to consolidate as traders balance strong US data against lingering geopolitical and policy risks. While upside momentum has cooled, the broader trend remains constructive as long as XAU/USD holds above key support levels.

Any renewed escalation in geopolitical tensions, a shift in Fed expectations, or fresh volatility in risk assets could quickly revive safe-haven demand and push gold back toward record territory.