Bitcoin price has struggled since the halving event that took place a month ago. The price has struggled to move above $10,000. At the time of writing, the price is at $9,358, which is along a channel it has been in recent weeks. Since May, the price has moved above $10,000 four times (May 7 and May 8 and June 1 and 2).
Why Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD) is struggling to pass $10,000
There are three primary reasons why Bitcoin price has continued to reject the $10,000 resistance. First, there is the central banks and Federal Reserve in particular. In the last meeting, the bank warned that the US economy would continue to struggle for a while.
As a result, the bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged and continue its QE program. At the same time, market participants believe that the bank will bring negative interest rates later this year. The bank continues to say that it is not considering this.
Negative interest rates would be good for Bitcoin price, stocks, and other assets. This is because they would discourage people to save their money in the bank. This is because in theory, negative rates would make the people pay the bank to save there. Therefore, since this is not a good option, more people would move to stocks and possibly Bitcoin.
Second, more people have been liquidating their Bitcoin holdings. This is due to a rotation to stocks, which have been performing relatively well in the past few weeks. For example, according to Bitmex, $14 million worth of Bitcoin futures were liquidated within a 30-minute window. Indeed, this is partly the reason why gold price also has been struggling.
Third, Bitcoin price tends to move sideways after halving. It did so in the past two halving events. This is partly because there is indecision among bulls and bears about how high or how low the prices will move.
On the daily chart, we see that Bitcoin price has been moving sideways direction. It has resisted the $10,000 level that is shown in blue. Also, the price is above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages. In an analysis of the four-hour chart, my colleague noted that the price could breakout lower. However, because of the ascending nature of the chart, I expect that the price will move above $10,000. Still, a move below $8,860 will see the price start a new bearish trend.