BAE Systems share price has had a spectacular performance in 2022 as demand for military equipment jumps following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The stock has jumped by more than 40% year-to-date while the FTSE 100 index has dropped by about 2.3%.
Strong US dollar is a catalyst
BAE Systems is the biggest defence contractor in Europe with a market cap of over 24 billion pounds. It has a strong market share in key sectors in the defence industry, including air, land, cyber security, marine, and electronics. The company operates mostly in the United States, UK, Saudi Arabia, and Australia.
BAE Systems share price has outperformed the FTSE 100 in 2022 because of the rising demand for its products. Recently, most countries have announced plans to boost their defence spending as global geopolitical risks rise. An invasion is going on in Ukraine while China seems focused on Taiwan.
At the same time, countries have sent so much military equipment to Ukraine that they will need to replenish their stocks. Therefore, analysts believe that BAE will continue doing well as demand rises. Recent results showed that the company’s sales jumped to 10.58 billion pounds in the first half of the year. Its free cash flow dropped to 123 million pounds from the previous 461 million pounds.
The biggest challenge for the BAE Systems share price is the soaring cost of doing business. However, with fears of a recession remaining, some commodity prices have declined sharply recently. They include commodities like iron ore and aluminum.
Another potential catalyst for BAE is the strong US dollar. The dollar has risen by more than 15% this year against the British pound. This is a positive catalyst because BAE generates most of its revenue in the United States. In 2021, the US represented about 43% of total sales. It is followed by the UK, Saudi Arabia, and Australia. Therefore, a strong US dollar means that the company’s results will be relatively strong in British pound terms.
BAE Systems share price forecast
The daily chart shows that the BAE share price has been in a bullish trend in the past few months. Most recently, the stock has formed an ascending channel that is shown in black. It has also moved slightly below the 25-day moving average while the MACD has moved below the neutral level.
Therefore, the stock will likely continue doing well in the coming months. This could see it soar to over 1,000p in the coming months. A move below the support at 750p will invalidate the bullish view.
