AUDGBP: This is Why the AUD to GBP is About to Do Something Special

AUDUSD Australian dollar

The AUD to GBP (AUDGBP) pair is slightly higher today as traders reflect on the impressive employment numbers from Australia and the UK and the positive China GDP data. The pair is trading at 0.5570, which is the highest it has been since July 7. Also, the pair has jumped by 11% in the past three months.

As I will explain below, the pair is aiming for the highest point in 2019.

UK jobs numbers upbeat

The AUDGBP pair is reacting to the positive jobs numbers from the United Kingdom. According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the employment change in the past three months to May dropped by 125k.

That was better than the decline of 234K that analysts were predicting. Also, the number of claimants in June dropped by 28.1k, which was better than the 250k increase that analysts were expecting.

Meanwhile, wages also did reasonably well in May. The average earnings for UK workers rose by 0.7%, which was better than the consensus estimates of 0.5%. Including bonuses, wages dropped by 0.3% while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.9%.

The employment situation in the UK has been relatively strong than in the US where the unemployment rate has jumped to more than 10%. That is because the UK government is paying salaries to many people employed in the economy.

Australia jobs numbers upbeat

The AUD to GBP (AUDGBP) pair also rose in response to the upbeat jobs numbers from Australia. As the economy reopened, more companies recalled some of their employees, albeit on a part time basis. The data showed that Australia created more than 210,000 jobs in June after shedding 227k in the previous month. Analysts were expecting the economy to create more than 112 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 7.4% while the participation rate rose to 64.0%.

However, the momentum eased because of the rising number of coronavirus cases in Melbourne and Australia. Indeed, the government is deploying more military officials in the border of the most populous states.

AUDGBP technical outlook

The AUDGBP pair has been rising in the past four days, and is now trading at the highest point since July 7. The price is a few pips below the double top pattern that happened at 0.5595. The price is also above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages. It has also formed an ascending triangle pattern that is shown in black. Therefore, this means that the price is likely to continue rising but bulls will need to defend the resistance at 0.5595.

On the flip side, a move below the important support at 0.5495 will invalidate this trend. This price is along the ascending trend line and the lowest level on July 10.

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AUD to GBP forecast


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