- Vodafone Idea stock price has risen by more than 20% in the last month and the big question remains as to whether it is sustainable.
Vodafone Idea (BSE: IDEA) has suddenly become an interesting stock, after being a bit of a slow performer in the Indian telecom market. In the last month, its stock price has jumped over 20%, hitting ₹10.68 before settling around ₹10.78 as of this writing.
Why Vodafone Idea Stock Rose
At the heart of the rally lies Vi’s Q2FY26 earnings, released on November 10, which revealed a narrower net loss of ₹5,524 crore, better than the ₹7,166 crore in the prior quarter. This boosted investor confidence in its growth plans and substantial investment in upgrading 4G and 5G tech rollout. Revenue remained stable at ₹10,805 crore, but the average revenue per user (ARPU), rose 8.7% year-over-year to ₹180, fueled by a shift toward premium plans.
This rise means the company’s earlier tariff increases and efforts to get users to go for 4G are starting to pay off. Even though Vi is still losing money, it’s making more money per customer, suggesting they’re better at making the most of their existing network.
Also, a crucial set of rulings from the Supreme Court has granted the government the discretion to consider and determine relief on Vi’s additional and reassessment of AGR-related liabilities. This could allow the company to finally get the debt financing it desperately needs, which has been in limbo.
Analysts, including those from JM Financial, have incorporated assumptions of partial AGR relief and an extension of payment moratoriums, viewing this government flexibility as a major de-risking event
Does the Stock Have More Room to Run?
Several factors suggest yes. Citi Research recently set a target of ₹14, citing AGR relief and upcoming 5G spectrum auctions that could cut debt from ₹2.15 lakh crore by FY27. Reuters says that more customers choosing premium plans could lead to 10% annual revenue growth through 2026. If tariff hikes materialize and government support continues, analysts believe ₹12–14 is achievable in the coming quarters.
Significant Risks on the Horizon
Despite the strong recent run, the investment remains high-risk. The core challenge is the company’s colossal debt burden and sustained unprofitability. The amount of regulatory liabilities, specifically AGR dues, is still extremely high. If the government’s final decision on relief is falls short of what the market expects, the stock could fall sharply.
Also, the successful closure of the long-pending debt and equity fundraising is not guaranteed. Failure to secure these funds on favorable terms would severely impair the company’s ability to invest in network infrastructure.
Vodafone Idea Stock Price Prediction
The stock has its 50-day SMA (₹8.92) above the 200-day SMA (₹7.74), which is a bullish sign. The RSI at 66 shows strong upside momentum without being overbought. Key resistance is at the psychological ₹11.00; if it closes above this level, it could reach ₹11.35. The pivot is at ₹10.50, with primary support likely at ₹10.20. A break below that level will likely see the next support at the 20-day EMA at ₹9.81 is now acting as support.
First, the Indian Supreme Court allowed the government to review and reassess Vodafone Idea’s additional Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) liabilities, raising hopes for significant financial relief and debt restructuring. Also, the company, Q2 FY26 earnings report showed 8.7% growth year-on-year in ARPU, signaling increased average expenditure per user as it promotes mass transition to 4G.
The company’s net loss decreased in Q2 FY26, and its ARPU increased to ₹180, which indicates improved performance.
For Vodafone Idea to realise its growth ambitions and enhance its competitiveness, it needs to successfully complete its debt and equity fundraising to invest in its network and ensure its future.
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