- Tesla sold 418, 227 units in Q4 2025, less than the 440,000 consensus forecast
- Investors are hoping that Tesla will evolve to lean more towards tech-driven growth and rely less on EV sales numbers
- Despite the disappointing EV sales, Tesla's robotaxis and energy segments hold immense growth potential
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) investors are facing a tough start to 2026. Tesla stock has dropped for seven straight sessions, erasing about 10% of its value in just over a week. If you’re wondering whether to buy now or wait for a bigger drop, you’re not the only one. Wall Street is split on whether Tesla is a game-changing tech company or just an overvalued car maker.
Why is Tesla Stock Under Pressure?
Primarily, Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries missed the mark, delivering 418,227 vehicles versus the expected 440,000. That’s a 16% year-over-year drop, marking the second straight year of decline. This amplifies worries about slowing demand amid more competition from companies like BYD and established automakers.
Additionally, according to Nasdaq insights, EV tax credits motivated buyers to purchase earlier in 2025, weakening Q4. The U.S. federal tax credit expiration in late 2025 created a demand vacuum that the company is struggling to fill. Meanwhile, the crown for the world’s largest EV maker has officially shifted to China’s BYD, which reported selling 2.26 million EVs in 2025, significantly outpacing Tesla’s 1.64 million.
Tesla 2026 Outlook
It is likely that 2026 will be a transition year for Tesla. They’re planning to start producing their robotaxi, the Cybercab, in April 2026. But there are still some roadblocks, as current U.S. laws are pretty strict about cars without steering wheels or pedals on public roads.
It’s not all about cars. Beyond cars, Tesla’s Energy sector had solid growth at the end of 2025. BloombergNEF predicts software services and energy storage could grow profit margins this year, offsetting slower car sales. Forbes forecasts over 50% growth in energy storage deployments, boosting gross margins to a high of 26%.
Tesla Stock Price Forecast Today
After failing to stay above its December 16 high of $489, Tesla stock has fallen below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) which is also its pivots at $464.27. The first key support area is likely to be at 50-day SMA at $445, and a break below that level could trigger a steeper decline to test $430. If it falls below this, it will likely drop to $400.
The RSI is now at 42, which denotes a strong bearish hold. Buyers need the stock to go back above $464 to take charge. If that happens, TSLA price could go higher and encounter the first barrier at 475.20. A break past that will invalidate the downside narrative and potentially result in further gains to test $490.
Tesla stock price daily chart with key support and resistance levels for January 5, 2026 created on TradingView
The streak was triggered by disappointing Q4 2025 delivery numbers and news that BYD has overtaken Tesla as the world’s top EV seller. Also, investors are nervous about how the end of those U.S. tax credits might hit sales in 2026.
The numbers say the stock is getting close to being oversold, so some traders might jump in for a quick profit. Still, the people at HSBC who study the company say the stock is still pricey, especially considering how much money Tesla is actually making right now.
It is doing surprisingly well. Even though car sales have cooled off a bit, they’re selling a ton of those big battery packs (Megapacks). Analysts think this part of the business could really bring in the cash and make them more money in 2026.