- Tesla will release its Q4 2025 earnings results on Wednesday, 28, 2026. The company reported a 16% YoY decline in EV sales in that quarter
- The energy segment has emerged as a high-margin business and could help alleviate declining vehicle sales
- Eyes will also be on updates on FSD rollout, robot and cybercab production milestones
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has had a tough start in 2026, dropping about 5% so far, as we await today’s Q4 2025 earnings report. After years of leading the pack, the big question about Tesla has changed. It’s not just about how many cars they can sell, but how well they can manage their money. Today’s call could tell us about their finances and what they plan to do moving forward, which will shape how the year goes for them.
What to Expect
Tesla delivered 418,000 cars in Q4, which is 16% less than the previous year and below consensus forecasts, partly because subsidies ended. Analysts say this quarter will be hard, estimating revenue around $24.75 billion (down 3.7% from last year) and earnings per share at $0.45 (down 40%), according to Yahoo Finance.
The main challenge for Tesla is its automotive gross margin. Tesla used to have great margins, but they cut prices to sell more cars, which hurt their profits. How they handle these pricing issues will be critical. The market will be watching to see if they can keep their margins around 15-16%. The market might react in different ways. The car numbers might be disappointing, but a strong performance in energy could help balance things out.
It is reasonable to expect a mixed market reaction. While weak auto numbers may disappoint, strong energy performance could provide uplift.
Tesla Beyond Cars
Cars are key, but energy storage is becoming more important. Analysts at Baird say this could be a highlight of the report. Tesla put out a record 14.2 GWh of storage in Q4 2025. Because it is a high-margin segment, this could help offset the slower car sales.
As more people use Tesla cars, services like Supercharging and maintenance are becoming more reliable sources of income. Elon Musk wants 10 million active Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions as part of his pay goals. Things like how many people use FSD and how much they make from services such as software updates are worth paying attention to. Nasdaq says these could significantly increase recurring income.
The Wild Card Announcements
Besides the numbers, the earnings call could include updates on self-driving tech and robots. Elon Musk has talked about expanding Cybercab, including not having safety monitors in Austin and starting services in over 30 cities. Investors want to know when Cybercab will start production, currently planned for Q2 2026, and when the Optimus robot will be available.
Tesla Stock Price Prediction
TSLA MACD remains in negative terrain, confirming downside pressure. Tesla stock trades below the pivot at $440. It has strong support at $420, with the second one at YTD lows at $417. A break below that level could push the action lower to test the psychological floor at $400. If it goes up, it will face resistance at $450, beyond which it could target $457.
Tesla stock on the daily chart with key support and resistance levels for January 28, 2026. Created on TradingView
The stock is down about 5% because Tesla didn’t deliver as many cars as expected in Q4, and there are worries about profit margins shrinking. Heavy competitive pricing in China and the end of subsidies in Europe have also made investors nervous.
The energy storage division is the standout. The company deployed a record 14.2 GWh in Q4 2025, and this segment is growing fast. It’s expected to make a lot of money and help make up for the slower growth in car manufacturing.
The key announcements to look forward to include updates on Cybercab expansions, Optimus commercialization and FSD advancements.