Palantir Stock Surge: Will the Navy Contract Trigger A Return to $200?

Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) stock has been doing great in late 2025. Its price has been climbing fast, with a near 2% increase over the last month alone. We look at the layers behind this increase, combining successes in enterprise AI with confirmations from the defense sector.

Palantir’s $448 Million Navy Contract a Key Catalyst

The U.S. Navy signed a historic $448 million deal with Palantir on December 9 for “ShipOS,” an AI-powered platform that will change the way submarines are built and repaired, by cutting pilot delays by 99%. Bloomberg noted the shared risk approach, which ties Palantir’s pay to getting the fleet out faster amid China’s accelerated expansion of its navy.

Palantir stock price surged 3.15% intraday to $184.31 premarket on December 10, on the back of the news. This contract eclipses prior wins, like the Army Vantage expansion to $618.9 million in late 2024, and underscores Palantir’s edge in outbidding rivals.
For investors hoping the stock will hit $200 again, a level it touched in November before profit-taking brought downward pressure, this deal brings confidence. Analysts at Investing.com are now talking about ongoing growth, saying the contract proves Palantir’s move into defense is solid even if there’s a recession.

The Path to $200 and Potential Pitfalls

The driving force behind Palantir’s remarkable 2025 performance, which saw its share price surge over 150% year-to-date by December, is the accelerating adoption of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). This platform differentiates Palantir by integrating AI seamlessly into enterprise operations.

Reclaiming $200 feels tantalizingly within grasp, yet not without hurdles. Year-to-date gains of 122% through early December, position PLTR for another leg up if Q4 guidance holds at 50% growth. The Navy pact could catalyze 10-15% upside, echoing post-earnings pops, but valuation concerns linger. A forward P/S at 104x screams froth, as IO Fund warns.

However, the path to $200 is certainly open. Strong Q3 results and the momentum from the $448 million Navy contract provide significant tailwinds. If the company keeps outperforming earnings estimates and gaining business clients, the market might justify the current valuation and aim for those previous highs.

Analyst price targets vary widely, reflecting this debate. Some firms, like BofA Securities has a Street-high target of $255, calling Palantir a “best-in-class AI enabler”, while others have a Neutral or Underperform rating, citing the “extreme” valuation relative to fundamentals.

PLTR Price Forecast

PLTR’s RSI is at 61 and leaning bullish after the contract news, suggesting ongoing buying. The MACD histogram is positive, with the line crossing the signal for upward movement, hinting at faster growth if trading volume holds up. Key support levels are at $175.20 and $167.70. Immediate resistance is around $190.40, just outside the upper Bollinger Band. If the stock flips that into a support, it could build traction to test the $200 mark.

Palantir stock price daily chart on December 11, 2025 with key support resistance and support levels. Created on TradingView

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