- Barclays and its UK peers had been under pressure on expectations of potential new "windfall tax"
- The decision to keep things unchanged has added confidence to the market outlook.
- A stable tax regime, supportive monetary policy and strong financial standing favour BARC to stay on the upside.
Barclays Bank share price movement in the last two weeks is a clear demonstration of how the market reacts to uncertainty in politics and the economy. It dropped last week but has bounced back this week, which is good news for investors who stuck with it. To see why it changed direction so quickly, let’s look at what caused the sell-off and what caused the rally.
What’s Behind Barclay’s Rebound?
The big recovery this week mainly came from relief after the budget announcement. Investors were worried about possible tax increases on financial profits, with talk of extending the 3% tax on earnings over £100 million.
The UK Chancellor ultimately decided against introducing any new or increased taxes on banks’ profits. This important non-event caused Barclays shares, along with those of its competitors, to rise quickly, which pushed the UK index higher. Banks were the biggest winners from this policy change because the risk premium for the sector was up right away when the tax burden was reduced.
Aside from the tax issue, Barclays (LSE: BARC) fundamentals are still good. They’re still making good returns on capital and profiting from higher net interest margins (NIMs) because of high interest rates in the UK and US, which help their local and investment banking areas. This mix of tax certainty and strong profits is backing the current positive trend.
The next natural question is whether Barclays share price can stay on the upside for the foreseeable future. Given its current valuation remains compelling relative to its capital generation, the recovery is grounded in sound fundamentals. Provided there are no unexpected shifts in monetary policy or a renewed focus on bank taxation, the upward path appears sustainable.
Barclays Share Price Prediction
Barclays is trading above its major moving averages, which is a positive sign. The first support 414p, beyond which the second one is likely to come at 410.45p, just above the 20-day SMA (410.45p). The pivot is at 420p and the buyers are likely to stay in control if action stays above that level. On the upside, the first resistance is at 427p, and if it goes beyond that, BARC will likely face the next barrier at 430.90p, retesting its 52-week highs.
BARC share price on November 27, 2025 with key support and resistance levels. Created on TradingView
The decline was primarily caused by widespread market speculation of a potential new “windfall tax” or increased levies being imposed on UK banks’ profits during the run-up to the recent Autumn Budget announcement.
The stock jumped more than 5.6% because the Autumn Budget didn’t raise bank taxes, which was a relief. Also, stable commodities and predictions that the Bank of England would cut rates helped.
Gains may endure with projected UK GDP growth. Still, there are dangers like an overbought RSI, inflation, and how people are spending their money, which could mean the stock price might level off.
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