- The USD/PLN pair has recorded an uninterrupted successive wins since the turn of the year
- Inflows from the Eurozone are yet to have the forecast impact on the Polish economy
- Divergent Fed and National Bank of Poland monetary policies add downward pressure on the Polish Zloty
The US dollar started 2026 strong against the Polish zloty, gaining about 0.74% so far, bringing the USD/PLN pair to roughly 3.615. This might seem odd, as Poland’s economy is doing well, and the National Bank of Poland (NBP) wants to keep prices steady, as they stated in their 2026 plans. Still, what matters most in the currency market is where money is headed.
Fed Policy Pressures the Zloty
The main reason for the dollar’s rise is its own strength. Reports show that traders don’t expect the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in March as much as they did before. Since the US job market is doing better than expected, there’s not much reason for the Fed to lower rates. This higher for longer idea makes the dollar more attractive to investors worldwide looking for returns.
On the other side of the pair, the Zloty is facing its own unique headwinds. ING Research points out that the National Bank of Poland has become more inclined to lower the interest rate. Since Polish inflation is around 2.4%, the NBP surprised everyone with a rate cut in December 2025.
Also, the zloty is under slight pressure from the region, including EU fund inflows that have yet to fully materialize gains, according to WBJ’s analysis of the currency’s strengthening trajectory in the CEE region.
Is the Rally Sustainable?
The consensus leans toward limited longevity, given structural factors favoring zloty appreciation. Some forecasts indicate a stronger dollar early in 2026 but anticipates a steady decline thereafter, driven by broader USD overvaluation.
ABN AMRO’s forex analysis agrees with this, saying the dollar will likely weaken as interest rates become more similar and Europe recovers. Poland’s strong economy, supported by EU funds and increased exports, should help the zloty rise. Right now, the zloty is in a tough spot, but since Poland’s economy is expected to grow by almost 4% this year, the dollar’s rise may stop soon.
USD/PLN Forecast
The USD/PLN daily chart shows the dollar is gaining momentum, with the overall technical picture pointing to a strong buy. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59 suggests buying, but not too much, meaning there could be more gains. The price is nearing a key resistance level at 3.62, and a break above that level could send the pair to test 3.64. Immediate support is at 3.60. If the price can’t hold 3.60, it could quickly fall back to 3.59-3.58 zone.
USD/PLN daily chart on January 9, 2026. Created on TradingView
The primary driver is a shift in Federal Reserve expectations. Earlier, markets thought interest rates would go down in early 2026. But, strong data from the US economy made investors think rates will stay high longer.
The NBP started cutting rates since inflation in Poland is steady. Because domestic interest rates are lower, foreign investors don’t get as good of a yield, which makes the Zloty less appealing than the Dollar, which has higher yields.
Investors should pay attention to the 3.63 level. If the pair goes above this, it could mean the price may keep rising. On the other hand, 3.60 is acting as a bottom; if it falls below that, it would mean the price increase is over.”