- USD/INR remains in a broader uptrend but is experiencing a short-term correction after failing to break recent highs, partly influenced by suspected RBI intervention.
The USD/INR advances by 0.06% in five days, and -0.15% during today’s trading session. On Wednesday, the currency pair boosted as the Reserve Bank of India intervened, boosting the Indian Rupee. After that, the USD/INR dropped from its record high at 91.07 to 90.28 during early trades today.
Foreign institutional investors (FII) turned out to be net buyers on Wednesday in the indian stock markets. Investors expect the central bank to step in again to support the rupee.
Impact of RBI Intervention on the Rupee and USD/INR:
The RBI intervention means selling the US Dollar aggressively on both spot and non-derivable forward markets. The bank aims to stop the one-way rally in the USD/INR, as it records a high at 91.55.
Before the RBI’s intervention, the USD/INR had been underperforming the US Dollar for a long time. The FIIs have been selling their stake in the indian stock market due to the uncertainty between united stated and India.
After the RBI’s intervention, the FIIs surprisingly turned out to be net buyers on Wednesday, with net purchases of 1,171.72 rupees crore worth of shares.
The stop selling of Indian equities by the FIIs may boost risk sentiment in the market. However, the impact would be for the short term as long as there are no escalations on the US-India trade deal.
Technical Outlook for the USD/INR:
The USD/INR price action shows that the price correction has started. However, the pair remains in a broader upward structure. The USD/INR climbed steadily, testing the upper resistance zone near 91.15-91.20.
The currency pair faces a rejection from this resistance area, leading to a sharp pullback. The pullback pushes the price below the middle Bollinger band. The price failed to hold above this key area, and the upside momentum weakened, reflecting RBI intervention.
Currently, the USD/INR is stabilizing above the 90.00-89.72 support zone. This zone aligns with the lower Bollinger band and a previous consolidation area. As long as this support holds, the pullback may remain corrective rather than signalling a full trend reversal.
To conclude, a decisive break below 90.00 could expose the pair to deeper losses toward 89.50. A rebound above 90.60 could renew buying interest and pave the way toward the 91.00-91.15 resistance zone.
The RSI is hovering around the low-40s, indicating bearish momentum in the short term, but not yet deeply oversold.
The support zone is 90.00-90.04, which has held recent pullbacks.
A break above 90.60-91.15 would signal stronger upside momentum.
RSI around the low-40s suggests short-term bearish bias but not deeply oversold, leaving room for a bounce.
The highest US dollar to indian rupees rate was 90.94 indian rupee on Wednesday, 18 December 2025. The main driver was the RBI’s intervention.
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