- The Turkish lira has been more resilient against the euro than the USD since late December 2025
- Turkey's central bank targets inflation to cool down to 16% towards the end of 2026, which could strengthen the lira further
- High interest rates in Turkey provide significant support to the lira amid high inflation
If you’ve been watching the Euro against the Turkish Lira, you might have noticed something interesting in early 2026. The EUR/TRY forex pair, after a quiet period from late December 2025 into early January, seems to be recovering.
Many traders are asking not just if the Euro will go up, but why the Turkish Lira (TRY) has been so resilient against the Euro, especially when it often seems weaker against the US Dollar. For context, EUR/TRY is down by -0.27% year-to-date while USD/TRY has gained 0.58% in the same period. So, what’s going on?
The Divergence Between EUR/TRY and USD/TRY
As of this writing, the EUR/TRY exchange rate is oscillating around the 50.38 mark. Data from Trading Economics and reports from the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) suggest that the Lira’s recent strength is because of high interest rates. While the Euro weakened a bit earlier this month, things are starting to change.
The lira appears more resilient against the euro due to differing monetary policy dynamics. The USD/TRY pair has risen to around 43.18 by January 14, outpacing EUR/TRY’s climb. This stems from the dollar’s broader appeal amid U.S. policy uncertainties and trade tensions.
In contrast, the euro faces headwinds from slower ECB rate adjustments compared to the Fed’s potential cuts. The Euro is facing problems because the European Central Bank (ECB) might not adjust rates as quickly as the Federal Reserve (FED) might cut them. Turkish policies, like the high real interest rates set by the Central Bank, help protect against the Euro, but they struggle more against the dollar’s strength caused by global uncertainties.
What Could Define EUR/TRY Path in 2026
Looking forward, a few things will shape how this pair moves. The outlook for the rest of 2026 will depend mainly on two things. First, there’s the CBRT’s new way of communicating, which includes a target to lower inflation to 16% by the end of 2026.If the Turkish central bank can convince markets that inflation is truly on a downward slope, the lira could continue to surprise skeptics.
On the other hand, Eurozone growth, bolstered by productivity and geopolitical stability, may add upward pressure. With Bulgaria joining the Eurozone on January 1, 2026, and a renewed focus on the EU Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument, the Euro has structural support. However, risks like U.S. tariffs and European political fragmentation could disrupt this.
EUR/TRY Forecast
The EUR/TRY pair is currently pivoting at the 10-day SMA level at 50.32 with the RSI at 59.77 indicating bullish control. It will likely meet the first hurdle at 50.40 which has been a key resistance for the last week. A successful break could open the path to rise further and test 50.50. On the downside, there’s primary support at 50.20, with the traders likely to be keen to defend the psychological 50.00 in the near-term leading to a stronger support level at the monthly lows at 50.03.
EUR/TRY daily chart with key support and resistance levels on January 15, 2026. Created on TradingView
Yes, Turkey’s expected inflation of 16% might stress the lira, but if depreciation is controlled, it could limit how much EUR/TRY goes up.
The CBRT has set a 2026 inflation target of 16%. This acts as an “anchor” for market expectations. If inflation stays within this band, it provides the Lira with significant fundamental support.
Usually, a strong Dollar puts pressure on all emerging market currencies. But, if the Euro is even weaker than the lira because of Europe’s economy not growing, the EUR/TRY pair could decrease even if USD/TRY is increasing.